UN poised to pass more Iran sanctions

A second resolution, which could come next week, adds an arms-export embargo and more financial measures.

from the March 16, 2007 edition

Page 3 of 3

Page 1 | Page 2 | 3

Ahmadinejad's critics say it's clear why he would propose visiting the Council in New York. He took the stage at the UN General Assembly as recently as last fall, to skewer what he calls Western and big-power efforts to keep developing countries subservient.

"The Iranians have had plenty of opportunities to talk to the UN about their nuclear developments if they are so anxious to do that," says Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy in Washington. "His [Ahmadinejad's] intention is to throw a monkey wrench in the works, engage the Russians and Chinese on his behalf, and put off further what is now long-overdue action by the Security Council."

What remains to be seen is whether the international pressure and the discomfiture in Iran's business and political circles will prompt the leadership to suspend uranium enrichment. Don't expect such a step soon, most experts say, even as new sanctions could be taking effect.

After next US presidential election?

"We have to expect that this process is going to take awhile," Mr. Brumberg says, adding that there may be no breakthrough until after the next US presidential election.

"It's going to be hard for the Iranians to find a face-saving formula," especially as long as a US administration that is associated with "a confrontational regime-change approach" is in office, he says. Prospects for a diplomatic solution could improve through a combination of Iran's increasing isolation and a growing American consensus around "engagement backed up by the potential use of force," he adds. But such a solution won't come tomorrow.

"The economy is already being hurt, but it will have to be hurt more," Brumberg says. "And Ahmadinejad will have to realize there are only so many Venezuelas he can run to" for support.

1 | 2 | Page 3