How the family factor figures in '08 presidential race

How much will candidates' personal lives matter?

from the March 15, 2007 edition

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In addition, the presence of "victims" – Giuliani's children – could make his second divorce politically problematic. When President Clinton was caught cheating on his wife, Mrs. Clinton stood by him and defended him. That came in contrast to Sen. Gary Hart (D) of Colorado, whose 1988 presidential campaign came to a crashing halt over marital infidelity. The picture of his wife appearing visibly aggrieved in public caused incalculable damage to his campaign.

Now, the issue of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's personal life – and her relationship with her husband, the ex-president – will also surely be continuing fodder for press coverage. Mr. Black, the GOP adviser, believes that, on balance, her continuing marriage to Bill Clinton remains a net plus.

"I don't' think [her marriage] will be a defining issue in her candidacy," says Black. "Since the Clintons emerged on the national scene, every time he acted up, thereby mistreating her, she went up in the polls."

In addition, Bill Clinton is so popular with the Democratic base that he's going to galvanize people to come vote for her if she's the nominee, he adds.

But for any candidate with personal issues they would rather not discuss, the early start to the presidential campaign is bad news. The press is constantly on the lookout for new angles, and tabloid fodder is often too hard to resist.

"Journalists get very, very tired of hearing the issue speeches over and over again," says Bruce Gronbeck, a professor of communication studies at the University of Iowa. Covering candidates' divorces and marriages and children "fits into the great American political culture, where the personal is political."

Candidates also must know the polling data that shows that voters consider character more important than positions on issues. And on the specific issue of multiple marriages, the polling data are not kind to those who have had three.

The latest analysis from Gallup, which measured an aggregate sample of 2,000 voters in February and March, found that 29 percent of voters said they would not vote for a candidate who has been married three times.

This does not mean that Giuliani and Gingrich should give up, analysts say, but it does give them a sense of the challenges they face.

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