GOP voter discontent allows new entrants for '08

The Republican field swells to 13 presidential candidates, official and potential.

from the March 13, 2007 edition

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The question, should he and the others still pondering a campaign decide to run, will depend on whether there's enough money and talent available to mount a credible effort.

For Hagel, who got the entire political world to hold its breath Monday morning for a nonannouncement, the question will also be how much of a constituency is there for a Republican senator who vocally opposes President Bush's handling of the Iraq war. Even though the war is unpopular with the general public, among Republicans, it still has majority support, albeit barely.

For Hagel and all the other possible late entrants, it may be a matter of "getting down in the weeds and hiding until these [declared candidates] start killing each other off," says Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University, who has served as a fellow in Hagel's office.

Working in favor of Hagel and the others who appear to be long shots is the new primary schedule, which could feature upwards of 20 states holding primaries on Feb. 5, not long after the opening rounds in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

"The idea that somehow, someone will come through with a juggernaut on Feb. 5 and capture all the big-state primaries and march on to victory is questionable," says Mr. Baker.

If the early results are mixed – one winner in Iowa, another in New Hampshire, a third in South Carolina – then the Feb. 5 results might also bring a mix of results, he says, and that might argue for a longer primary season. Whether that opens the door to a late-breaking candidate remains an open question.

 

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