Syria seeks to gain from regional tumult

Iraq is where the war is. Iran is where the disputed nuclear program is. And Lebanon is where America's friends in the Middle East are going head-to-head with its enemies.

Yet it's in Syria where the threads of these conflicts come together.

The country that the Bush administration says helps terrorists, and which has been treated with barely disguised irritation by fellow Arab states in recent years, is seeking to trade on the impression it can provide at least partial solutions to some of the region's most pressing problems. Though weaker than Iran or Saudi Arabia, the country represents a crucial element in a triangle of interlocking regional powers.

"The [Syrian] state always calls Syria the 'beating heart of Arabism,' and it's true in the sense that Syria, by geography and sectarian makeup, is key to what's going on in the region, especially the concerns over spreading Iranian influence," says Andrew Tabler, a Damascus-based fellow with the Institute of Current World Affairs.

Though the US has refused to talk directly to Syria, demanding that Damascus cease meddling in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories first, the regime's isolation appears to be crumbling.

Relations with neighboring Iraq have improved with the formal restoration of diplomatic ties in December and the signing of a joint security agreement. American senators have recently traveled to Damascus and a State Department official is planning a visit to discuss the plight of Iraqi refugees.

Syrian interests also were high on the agenda of a meeting last weekend between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Saudi King Abdullah.

In recent days, there were hopes among Lebanese government officials and opposition figures that Iran – which uses Damascus as its strategic linchpin to Hizbullah in Lebanon – had worked out a deal with Saudi Arabia – a political and financial backer of Lebanon's government – to end a three-month old political deadlock.

But local media report that Saudi officials have since played down hopes of a quick resolution. Both sides recognize that any deal would have to ease pressure on Syria over its suspected involvement in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri two years ago. That could mean Lebanese approval for a watered-down international tribunal on Hariri's murder, sparing top Syrian officials from indictment. In exchange, Syria would lean on Hizbullah and other Lebanese opposition members to call off their bid to topple the governing coalition.

Syria's ability to potentially scuttle unfavorable deals brokered by the regional powerhouses of Saudi Arabia and Iran underlines Riyadh's irritation with Damascus – as well as the risks of ignoring the Syrians.

"The Saudis continue to be annoyed with Damascus.... All the same, the Saudis understand that for Middle Eastern tensions to be reduced, Syria must be brought into negotiations," says Joshua Landis, a codirector of the University of Oklahoma's Center of Peace Studies and a specialist on Syria.

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