Momentum builds for more sanctions against Iran

The UN Security Council takes up the issue this week, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran.

from the March 6, 2007 edition

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But a proposal for an embargo on all arms trading with Tehran was dropped last week on Russian objections, officials said. Also scuttled was a ban on student visas for Iranians studying subjects such as nuclear physics.

Revived US interest in sanctions reflects two factors. First, the Bush administration, originally frustrated by the four months of wrangling it took to get the first resolution, which was regarded as relatively weak, took note of an almost immediate political impact in Tehran.

The resolution "has generally been a very effective mechanism by which to pressure the Iranian regime," added Mr. McCormack. The resolution has had an impact with financial and business institutions that don't like the uncertainty of dealing with a country under sanctions, he says.

Second, Washington has viewed sanctions against North Korea and UN condemnation of Pyongyang after it tested a nuclear weapon in October as having played a key role in bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table.

The Bush administration appears to have concluded that sanctions can play a part in modifying a country's actions, especially if they come in the context of a united international community that includes the country's key friends: China in the case of North Korea, China and Russia in the case of Iran.

Yet the case of Iran is complicated by the war in Iraq and the interests both the US and Iran have in Iraq. And analysts are divided on what international talks on Iraq, including both Iranian and American officials, might have on the nuclear issue. Some say the talks, which are set to commence this Saturday, are likely to deflate international pressure on Iran, while others believe progress on Iraq could move Iran toward a more accommodating position on its nuclear program.

The administration may have adopted a diplomacy-with-threats approach to Iran, but some analysts say the strategy confuses US partners and encourages the Iranians to focus on ways to exploit it.

"The Bush administration thinking seems to be that every successive resolution will be stronger and that combining that with the increased pressure of measures like a second aircraft carrier in the Gulf, you can pressure Iran into acquiescing," says Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations here.

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