Pakistan walks fine line with capture of high-level Taliban leader

The arrest on Pakistani soil shows the challenges facing Pervez Musharraf's government.

from the March 5, 2007 edition

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Islamabad has officially refused to confirm or deny Akhund's arrest. That silence speaks volumes, according to some analysts, underscoring Pakistan's predicament: The more it seizes significant Taliban targets, placating Washington, the more it confirms that those targets are firmly entrenched here.

"It raises questions about how much [the Pakistan government] knows, and how much capacity they have to do something about it," says Ayesha Siddiqa, an independent defense analyst in Islamabad.

She adds that the government, even if it has the intelligence, cannot completely crack down. Recent suicide bombings, fast becoming a frequent occurrence, showcase the backlash the government is already facing because of attacks on militants.

On Friday, militants in Multan targeted a judge trying a high-profile case against the leader of a prominent local terrorist organization. A bomb hidden in a bicycle wounded the judge and killed three others as the judge was heading to work.

To many, the timing of Akhund's arrest is highly suspect. For almost six years, Akhund evaded capture, critics say, but he was arrested only hours after Vice President Cheney met with Musharraf. The White House has yet to make the contents of that meeting public, and maintains that Cheney's visit was not meant to send a stark message.

Analysts here say that the orchestration shows how Pakistan is able to manipulate events seemingly with the flip of a switch, cherry-picking targets to save face.

"There is international pressure, so Pakistan has to find ways to buy time. It is a childish sort of a game." says Mr. Khattak. "This happens every now and then whenever someone senior comes to Pakistan," he adds, referring to missile strikes on militant enclaves that have coincided with visits by American officials.

Akhund is one of several Taliban commanders to have been captured in Pakistan, particularly in Quetta. In October 2005, police arrested Abdul Latif Akimi, then the Taliban's leading spokesman.

Government officials balk at the charge that Islamabad turns a blind eye. "Nobody is roaming around openly. Why should they do that in Pakistan when they have many areas in Afghanistan? Why would they risk getting arrested in Pakistan," says Sen. Tariq Azim Khan, the state minister for information and broadcasting.

Others fear that Pakistan, long a friend to the Taliban, is not convinced of the need to let them go. "[The Pakistani] government wants to adjust, but not change [its relationship with militants]," says Khattak, adding that many see the recent change in the US Congress as a sign that Washington will pull back its influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan, wanting to prevent destabilization, may back the Taliban again.

Even if Akhund's arrest is verified, it is unlikely to deal a huge setback to the Taliban, analysts warn. Like Al Qaeda, the Taliban have learned to operate in independent units. Akhund is a large symbolic target; his arrest would undercut morale. But others are likely to quickly take his place, analysts say, showcasing the insurgency's flexibility.

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