Britain's Gordon Brown: a change in tone for US

Ever since Tony Blair let slip in September 2004 that he had plans to step down, two questions have loomed large in Britain. When will he go, and what will his successor do differently?

Now that the answer to the first question is more or less settled – Mr. Blair is expected to move on by midsummer – the focus is turning to the second.

Barring an improbable political upset, that man will be Gordon Brown, an earnest Scot with a rigorous intellect and a passion for social justice who has served – not always comfortably – for 10 years as Blair's finance minister and right-hand man.

Members of Parliament, political analysts, and people who know Mr. Brown say he will be a much different prime minister from Blair. His interests are Africa and trade justice rather than the Middle East; he was never enthusiastic about Iraq; he appears to have little in common with President Bush.

But although Brown is sometimes seen as the embodiment of core Labour values, the caricature of him as a closet socialist suspicious of America and skeptical about war is off the mark.

"Gordon is very much an Americaphile, in some ways more than Blair," says Stephen Twigg, a former government minister who is now director of the Foreign Policy Center think tank in London. "When he goes on holiday abroad ,he tends to go to Cape Cod, while Blair normally holidays in Europe. Culturally, Gordon is very much an Atlanticist with strong connections to US politics."

Brown is not yet home free. Some in his Labour Party mutter that his diffident ways and clear association with 10 years of Blairism may make it difficult for him to appeal to voters. But so far, there is no sign of another Labour candidate coming forward to challenge him for the role of party leader that Blair will vacate. If no one does, Brown will accede unchallenged to the Labour helm, and as a result will take over as prime minister as well.

Americans may find him a very different proposition from Blair, more cautious, possibly less compliant. Some say the White House should prepare for a big change in style, if not substance. "There'll be a huge difference because Brown is not an actor like Blair," says Tom Bower, a journalist and author who wrote a 2004 biography of Brown. "But he is an Atlanticist and won't break the relationship with Washington."

What he might do, however, is accentuate the differences between London and Washington. Blair was always apt to minimize whatever disputes arose and stress the unity of the two allies, which often made him look obsequious and earned him the unflattering sobriquet "Bush's poodle."

But diplomats have criticized him for failing to extract enough influence for his unswerving support for Bush's wars. Brown may play a tougher game.

"In those areas where there is disagreement, as there has been on climate change [and] the International Criminal Court, Tony Blair has tended to underplay those, whereas Gordon Brown might be more overt," predicts Mr. Twigg. "He will quite deliberately give emphasis to areas where there are disagreements."

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