Black voters help Obama gain ground on Clinton

The latest polls show Hillary Clinton's lead is shrinking, and Obama has pulled ahead among African-Americans.

By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the March 1, 2007 edition

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WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama's dramatic rise in support among African-Americans signals a shift in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination that is larger than just the black vote. Overall, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is still on top, but her lead is shrinking. And polls show Senator Obama of Illinois has more room for growth than she does, because of her high negatives.

In short, if Senator Clinton of New York thought the primaries would result in her coronation as the Democratic nominee, she should think again.

"We have a real horserace," says John Zogby, an independent pollster whose latest data show that Obama leads Clinton among black Democratic voters 36 percent to 27 percent.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday showed a similar trend: Obama leads Clinton among black Democratic voters 44 to 30. In both December and January, the Post/ABC poll had Clinton beating Obama among African-Americans 60 to 20. Overall, the latest Post/ABC poll shows Clinton beating Obama 36 to 24, down from a 41-17 split in January. The Post attributes the gains of Obama, who is black, to his rise in support among African-Americans.

Of course, it's early; the first caucuses and primaries are almost 11 months away. But Obama has the momentum and buzz, and is drawing phenomenal crowds. Last Friday, 20,000 people came to see him speak in Austin, Texas. Between 15,000 and 17,000 people showed up in frigid temperatures for his announcement speech Feb. 10 in Springfield, Ill.

Analysts say Obama's bounce in the polls is due in part to his formal announcement, which has led growing numbers of voters to tune in to who he is and what he is saying. But, says Mr. Zogby, Clinton is losing some of her luster for other reasons: First is her refusal to apologize for her vote in 2002 that gave President Bush a green light to launch the Iraq war. Democratic activists – those most likely to show up in primaries and caucuses – are more in sync with Obama, who has opposed the war from the beginning.

Second, Clinton faces questions about electability in the general election. Obama also faces such questions, but there is firmer opposition to her candidacy in the electorate than there is against Obama.

"Her third problem is that she has the misfortune of running against Jack and Bobby in one year," says Zogby, referring to President Kennedy and his brother Bobby, in a loose comparison to Obama and the third top contender in the Democratic race, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. "They are not to be taken lightly at all. As we see, Barack in particular right now is cutting into a very solid Clinton constituency."

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embrace: Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton chose a historic black neighborhood in Miami for her first presidential campaign appearance in Florida last week. LYNNE SLADKY/AP