America's new path on Iraq: talk to Iran
In a shift, the US plans to talk to Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria, about the region. What do key players hope to get?
from the March 1, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 4
"The Iranians have been signaling they want to do this forever,'' says Bill Beeman, a professor at the University of Minnesota whose recent book, "The Great Satan vs. the Mad Mullahs," explores the two country's tempestuous relationship. "The thing that the Iranians will value above all about this is that they're sitting down in a situation with the US in which the parties are equals,'' he says. "They get to sit together on an equal playing field without having to kowtow to the US. In the past, "the US has insisted the Iranians somehow have to do penance before the US will talk to them,'' Beeman says.
Iran will also be seeking to make it clear that its shared interests with Iraq over both oil and the flow of Shiite pilgrims across the border make close relations crucial and inevitable, and that efforts to isolate the two countries could backfire.
Britain
Britain's interests and perspectives on Iraq are roughly aligned with America's, but it has been much more open to diplomacy with Iraq's neighbors in recent years.
Britain has argued that as neighbors, Iran and Syria can be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. When the Iraq Study Group – a US government panel that issued a report urging a change in the Bush administration's course earlier this year – recommended that the two countries be drawn into dialog, Britain welcomed its report. At the time, the Bush administration rejected that advice.
Still, Downing Street is skeptical about how constructive the talks with Tehran and Damascus will prove. "Meeting is good but results have to flow from meetings," says a British foreign office spokesman.
Syria
Like Iran, Syria will see the meeting as a chance to get a "foot in the door" with the US which has cold-shouldered Damascus for the past two years. Despite Washington's icy relations with Damascus, the Syria regime of President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly said it wants to resume full dialog with the US and that it's willing to revive peace talks with Israel.
Analysts say Syria will seek to use the meeting to advance its interests outside of Iraq. "Probably the immediate priority is Lebanon, followed by the Palestinian and Israeli issue," says Andrew Tabler, a Damascus-based fellow with the Institute of Current World Affairs.
A United Nations probe into the killing of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri has implicated Syria. Damascus denies any involvement. The US has backed demands that those involved with the killing be prosecuted, even if they're found to be Syrian officials. Syria is worried that a proposed international tribunal to try Hariri's killers will be used as a political tool by the US to weaken the regime. It's seeking to persuade the Americans to ease the pressure.
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