America's new path on Iraq: talk to Iran

In a shift, the US plans to talk to Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria, about the region. What do key players hope to get?

from the March 1, 2007 edition

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To be sure, Ms. Rice's announcement does not necessarily mean the administration has wholeheartedly jumped on the "talking with the enemy" bandwagon.

"The administration is still skeptical, but they were not going to be the skunk at the garden party and say we are not going at all," says Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Noting that Iraq's neighbors all have an interest in Iraq's stability, Geoffrey Kemp of the Nixon Center in Washington says that the open-to-all talks make sense. The US may be interested in addressing what it sees as Iranian interference, he says, but the Iranians are worried about Iraq-originating Kurdish interference in its territory, while Turkey also is concerned about Kurdish elements.

Mr. Clawson says that such a broad conference is unlikely to be the venue for negotiating specific issues like the flow of Iranian pilgrims or smuggling across the Iranian border. It's more likely that the process will serve to encourage more international assistance for Iraq.

Iran

Iraqi officials say the Iranians have confirmed they will participate, but Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's national security council, said Wednesday that the country would attend if it was "expedient." Analysts say that Iran won't miss the chance to sit down with the US. It remains angry at US allegations that it's running a secret nuclear-weapons program, but America's apparent belief that Iran can help fix the problems of its neighbor opens up the slight possibility of a quid pro quo – less pressure on nukes in exchange for more help on Iraq.

Iran has been making overtures for more bilateral diplomacy for years, but has been consistently rebuffed by the US, which has demanded that Iran meet preconditions like suspending its uranium enrichment program first. The Iranians will see this as a golden opportunity to get the ball rolling to a more normal relationship, analysts say.

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