Iran's pursuit of nuclear power raises alarms

Does access to fuel ease nations toward nuclear weapons? Rising demand has nonproliferation experts unsettled.

from the February 27, 2007 edition

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"We may still be debating whether Iran's nuclear program is ultimately for peaceful purposes or progressing with the intent of building nuclear weapons, but the countries in the region have made their decision that it is an aggressive program that requires a counter," says Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council and an Iran expert.

Noting that at least eight countries in the Middle East have recently declared intentions to develop nuclear technology, he says: "They are looking for some sort of counterweight to the Iranian program, which the Iranians may say is for peaceful purposes but which [these countries] know has the potential of being a nuclear-weapons program as well."

Needed: disincentives to make fuel

Beyond the immediate case of Iran, Mr. Berman says, the NPT poses a problem in that its guarantees of access to nuclear power encourage countries to develop technology "that allows them to come within striking distance of a nuclear-weapons capability."

An urgent need, he adds, is a new international system that creates "disincentives" for countries to move beyond nuclear power to producing nuclear fuel.

Ideas are out there, though no one is jumping at adopting them.

One proposal is to create a privately funded "fuel bank" – a stockpile of low-enriched uranium for use by countries that pledge not to build their own fuel-cycle capabilities. The Nuclear Threat Initiative co-founded by Ted Turner and former US Sen. Sam Nunn has committed $50 million to creating such a bank through the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Others, such as the proliferation education center's Sokolski, say the incentives for nuclear-power production, including huge subsidies that countries give it, must be accounted for so that nuclear programs make economic sense. That would level the playing field as countries look for energy alternatives, and limit the "excuses" for developing a technology with a military adaptation, he says.

Jitters about nuclear rise again

While jitters about nuclear's potential for destructive uses are not new, they are heightened by the need for clean energy sources and new security threats.

America's first National Intelligence Estimate, issued under the Eisenhower administration, noted that countries would choose how to use nuclear technology "depending on how they think the wind is blowing," notes Mr. Cirincione.

"The challenge we face now is this: If we think nuclear energy is part of a global-warming solution, then we have to solve the nuclear-fuel problem to make the world safe for nuclear-power production."

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