Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan

That is certainly the feeling of Shiites in Multan, who make up 40 percent of the city's roughly 4 million people. Sitting around plates of food together, Sunnis and Shiites insist there is no conflict among them, and that foreign powers both here and in Iraq are trying to sow discord.

Even without Iraq, though, some fear Pakistan is particularly vulnerable because of the Taliban resurgence in its backyard. "We tend only to think of [the Taliban] in terms of Afghan politics. We don't think of it as being a resurgence of a Salafi extremist force in Afghanistan. The ideological implications fall on the Shiites," says Mr. Nasr.

For some, Al Qaeda's war against Shiites has already ignited tensions in Pakistan. Editorials in leading newspapers – particularly after this week's suicide bombings – speak of a "new anti-Shiite wave that is radiating from Iraq ..." and President Pervez Musharraf has warned of the need to diffuse sectarianism "not just for the country's security, but for the entire Muslim world."

Such fears may be well grounded, even though the number of sectarian killings is down when compared with the past. In January, police investigators in Karachi announced that Al Qaeda worked with local sectarian groups to carry out some of the largest suicide attacks against sectarian targets last year, which left more than 60 dead, according to local news reports. And this past week's suicide attacks bore the signature of Al Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan, observers say.

Whether or not it spells a war emanating from Iraq, the West should pay heed, say analysts.

"People tend to dismiss the sectarian groups ... because they're not targeting you. But they always could," says Christine Fair, a South Asia counterterrorism expert at the US Institute of Peace, a Congressionally funded think tank in Washington, D.C.

Ms. Fair and others point out that extremist groups cross-pollinate: Those who attack Shiites today are the ones who attack Western targets tomorrow.

In January, Karachi investigators determined just that: A suicide attack last March, which killed an American diplomat, was carried out by Lashkar-i-Jhangvi, a sectarian group working with Al Qaeda.

"They have multiple goals. It's an external jihad. It's an internal jihad," says Ahmed of ICG, adding that Pakistan and the West have to address both sides of the coin.

But, say residents in Multan, Sunnis and Shiites enjoy strong family-to-family bonds for the most part, and interfaith boards and education have helped blunt sectarianism's impact.

If there is a growing global conflict, Malik Naseem Labar, a local Sunni politician, could not see it through the throngs during Ashura this week.

"We respect [Ashura]. All these young boys – they are all Sunnis," says Mr. Labar, gesturing toward swaths of young men mingling freely with Shiites. "I am Sunni, but I am here."

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