Ripple effects of a Windows Vista rollout

Computer users know the drill.

First comes the hype from Microsoft about the latest Windows software. Next come the reviews from techies, and then the decision about when or whether to upgrade the core software on their machines.

But even if this week's release of the latest Windows software, called Vista, has become a somewhat familiar event, the rollout is nonetheless significant – for Microsoft, for worker productivity, and, as a consequence, for the whole economy for years to come.

For better or worse, Microsoft's code will help determine how quickly the digital revolution advances.

"It won't ... feel as dramatic" as Windows rollouts in the 1990s, says Michael Gartenberg, a senior analyst at JupiterResearch in New York. But desktop software, of which Windows is king, is "still a base and a foundational technology."

Vista arrives amid renewed competition in a transitioning high-tech industry. Microsoft dominated the software arena in an era when the goal was to put computing power on individual desktops.

In this decade, more emphasis is on the creative potential of the Internet – a platform where Microsoft has no monopoly. Neither does the Redmond, Wash., firm rule in the market to bring video, Web surfing, and other capabilities to the cellphone.

Still, its Windows software underpins most computers in American homes and workplaces – meaning each new version of Windows causes ripple effects from living rooms to corner offices. Worldwide, some 850 million personal computers run on some version Windows, Microsoft says.

Though Vista may well bring productivity gains, they aren't likely to be apparent right away. Nor is a surge in economic output. As in the past, the launch will kick off an "upgrade cycle," involving billions of dollars in hardware sales, software development, and help-desk calls.

It's a a slow but inexorable process, moving more like the tortoise than a high-tech hare. Microsoft wins, but computer sales also rise, and new products emerge from hundreds of other firms.

"We're not only going to see a lot of software, but we're going to see a lot of innovative and interesting hardware as well," predicts Mr. Gartenberg.

For the US economy, the gains should come – over time – in higher productivity.

When workers can do more each hour on the job, it's a recipe for wealth creation. Companies prosper, and both wages and profits can rise faster than inflation. For any nation, productivity holds the key to a rising standard of living. Vista won't cause an overnight revolution in cubicles, but Microsoft has outlined productivity gains among its benefits.

In the 1990s, America's productivity growth exceeded expectations, often surpassing 3 percent a year. But the progress tends to come in cycles, and productivity growth ebbed last year to a pace nearer 1.5 percent for the US and Europe.

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