Wealth gap tests Mexico's conservative new leader

Mexico's economic crises, especially in the '90s, weighed on its ability to create jobs and spur growth. Many analysts say that the North American Free Trade Agreement, too, while benefiting the north as factory growth and foreign investment boomed, decimated many small farmers in the south, exacerbating "the two Mexicos."

Fox tried to bridge the divide most notably with "Oportunidades," a plan begun under Mr. Zedillo. The program, under which 5 million families receive stipends if their children remain in school, has been hailed an international model. Calderón, who has said he'll be the president of "all Mexico," is expected to expand the program, and many say he'll be successful.

But some experts question whether following Fox's lead is best.

Felipe Avila Leon, a farmer from San Isidro Vista Hermosa, doesn't own much and says he never will. Most of what his family eats is grown on a 3-1/2-acre patch of land an hour's trek down the back side of a mountain. When they need soap or school supplies, they sell a goat at the local market for about $20.

None of the family's nine children have gone to high school because they can't afford the ride to Tlaxiaco, where both the high school and nearest health clinic are located. Their floor is made of dirt; their bathroom is an outhouse in the middle of a field.

"I'm happy working in the countryside," he says on a recent day as he herds his 50 goats and a few sheep. "But I don't want my children to live in the same situation."

His wife, Hermalinta Leon Victoria, says she receives about 350 pesos (about $32) a month from Oportunidades since she has two young teens in school. It helps, she says; she would never want to give it up. But she adds that they are just as poor as they were six years ago when they began receiving the stipend. Like the rest of her children, her two youngest probably won't be able to go to high school.

Julio Boltvinik, a poverty expert at the College of Mexico, argues that instead of additional social programs like the ones announced by Calderón thus far, a broad approach to tackling poverty is needed – from improving the education system to creating jobs that help Mexicans progress. De la Torre says an integrated model measuring the merits of all social programs is required, but says it won't be until next year that the administration finalizes a blueprint.

Currently most families receive about a dollar a day for participating in Oportunidades, says Mr. Boltvinik. "This does not bring anyone out of poverty. It does not bring real change."

Victor Manuel Alejo, a sociology teacher in Tlaxiaco, participated in the Oaxaca conflict, and says that while it was a local issue at heart, it symbolizes a much larger problem.

"It's not just [the political situation] in Oaxaca, it's something much bigger," he says. He says he is prepared to protest if Calderón privatizes state-run industries such as oil, raises taxes, or violates human rights with military force. "Now bigger problems are coming."

That's why López-Calva says Calderón must quickly show his commitment to fighting poverty. "You have to move fast, or there will be a backlash against democratic institutions that aren't delivering fast enough," he says.

• Ms. Llana is Latin America correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

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