Belarus cuts off Russian oil to Europe

Belarus, a heavily industrialized Slavic nation of 10 million, has been Russia's closest ally in the post-Soviet region since Mr. Lukashenko came to power a dozen years ago. Lukashenko and former Russian President Boris Yeltsin drew up a grand plan to join their countries in a neo-Soviet union, but Vladimir Putin has been less enthusiastic. Still, Moscow has repaid Lukashenko's geopolitical loyalty with subsidies estimated at as much as $8 billion annually, in the form of cheap gas, duty-free oil, and favored access to Russian markets for Belarussian industrial goods.

But Lukashenko has been a growing embarrassment to Moscow. Human rights groups accuse him of rigging elections, closing down independent media, and imprisoning dissidents. Experts say Lukashenko has employed Russian subsidies to create a neo-communist welfare state, which tamps down popular discontent but has also become an obstacle to the economic expansion for Russia's industrial conglomerates.

"Russia has been subsidizing Belarus because we thought there was going to be a full alliance between our countries," says Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected analyst. "But Lukashenko has been blocking [Russia's goals] and, if that's the way it's going to be, then he should have to pay full market prices for energy."

Some Russian experts suggest Mr. Putin may be angling for regime change in Minsk, the Belarussian capital, or at least sweeping revisions in the relationship. "Russia doesn't see any returns on its investments in Belarus," says Gennady Chuffrin, deputy director of the Institute for World Economy and International Relations. "The Kremlin believes it has a strong hand to play and that Lukashenko, a political outcast, has little chance of holding out for long against Russian pressure."

Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, says Russia's and Belarus's behavior is "an example of how high oil prices embolden people to take destabilizing steps. It's what I call the oil chutzpah factor," he says, citing Iran, Venezuela, the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, and now Russia.

However, it would be wrong to simply view Russian energy policy as "imperial posturing," counters Rainer Lindner, a Russian expert at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, a foreign affairs think tank in Berlin. "By ditching privileged oil and gas deals with its neighbors and increasing prices, Russia complies with demands of the World Trade Organization [WTO]. The WTO doesn't accept privileged prices of the type that existed between Russia and its neighbors so far."

To safeguard its own energy security, the EU should offer to mediate between Russia and its neighbors, says Dr. Lindner. Germany in particular "has good relations with Russia and should bring these to bear in the interest of the EU's energy security."

But the EU would require Belarus to make reforms, he adds. "The EU doesn't readily accept a regime like Belarus at the negotiating table without conditions. "The message is simple: 'If you want us to moderate, you have to meet certain political standards.' This could effect a kind of regime change there."

• Robert Marquand in Paris and Ranty Islam in Berlin contributed.

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