Has Lebanon's Cedar revolt come undone?

Unlike the participants of the Cedar Revolution, the vast majority of the opposition's supporters are drawn from the poor rural areas of south and east Lebanon, lending a class-based distinction to the sit-in. For many, it's the first time they have seen Beirut's city center, whose cobble-stoned streets lined with expensive boutiques, restaurants, and cafes normally cater to the wealthy.

Some Cedar Revolution activists are attempting to counter the political crisis with a campaign dubbed "I love life."

Billboards around the country carry the slogan written in red and white letters in Arabic, English, and French. The campaign, says ad executive and campaigner Elie Khoury, is intended to rally the "politically homeless" and will soon be sending the message overseas. "We want to tell the world that, regardless of whatever they see on their TV screens, the Lebanese want to live and move ahead," he says.

On New Year's Eve, some 15,000 people attended a pop concert organized by the "I love life" campaign. At midnight, the Beirut seafront was lit by a massive fireworks. Not to be outdone, opposition supporters launched their fireworks moments later, bathing downtown Beirut in flashes of color.

The opposition had hoped that the government's resolve would crumble in the opening days of the sit-in. But it has refused to yield and is locked into a war of attrition that has left the country on edge. Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the patriarch of the Maronite church, said in a Christmas message that the "anarchy" gripping Lebanon was "a mess unprecedented in Lebanese history."

Some Lebanese analysts say that the opposition's campaign is losing momentum, forcing it either to reach a compromise with the government or step up its actions. Opposition leaders have warned that the campaign could escalate into civil disobedience.

But Ahmad Fatfat, Lebanon's minister of sport and a prominent member of the March 14 coalition, says that the opposition has misunderstood the effect of street protests. "They are using the same tactics, the same mobilization of people," he says. "But this tactic won't solve any the problems. It worked against an external problem like Syria, but it won't work in domestic politics."

The Cedar Revolution succeeded partly because it was backed by the West and leading Arab countries against an isolated Syria. Furthermore, analysts say, Lebanon's political pluralism makes it almost impossible for one group to impose its will on the others, which is why politics here traditionally is one of consensus and dealmaking.

"This is what makes Lebanon different from other Arab countries," says Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Relations at the American University of Beirut. "This standoff has two parties with roughly equal support and backed by foreign countries. Both sides are looking for a way out and that will only come about with a negotiated deal."

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