Darfur diplomacy: sidelined by Somalia?

"All along with Sudan, the US has put other interests above the humanitarian crisis. And we can expect to see more of that with the support for Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia," says Nii Akuetteh, executive director of Africa Action, a Washington advocacy group supporting international intervention in Darfur. "What else explains the gulf between the American leadership – including President Bush – describing what is happening in Darfur as genocide, and the steps to do something about it?"

Mr. Akuetteh says the United States has welcomed Sudanese intelligence officials for briefings with the CIA – despite some of those same officials' association with the Janjaweed, the notorious pro-government militia responsible for many of the deaths in Darfur.

"The explanation seems to be that the US values terrorism intelligence over the genocide issue," he says.

Some experts say Sudan's ability to resist a robust UN force in Darfur is another example among many of waning American influence in Africa. But others, like Akuetteh, say the US continues to have leverage with Khartoum.

Andrew Natsios, White House special envoy on Darfur, has warned Sudanese officials that the US would consider a "Plan B" for getting action on Darfur if Sudan did not approve a peacekeeping force by Jan. 1.

But Mr. Morrison of CSIS qualifies much of the current threatening by the US as "smoke" to cover for a lack of options in an environment of weakened influence. Three options the US is considering – imposing a no-fly zone over Darfur, blocking the financial transactions of individuals targeted for abuses in Darfur, or seeking action by the International Criminal Court – have drawbacks and would be of limited impact, he says.

"We tend to forget that the US had a lot of leverage in Sudan after 9/11 and was able to use that to make important headway," says Morrison. "But then came the blowback from the invasion of Iraq, and Bashir was able to play off the animosity in the Arab community."

Others say the loss of leverage the US has suffered in Sudan could be joined by heightened disregard for the US among the world's Muslims, given tacit American support for Ethiopia's entry into Somalia against the Islamists of the ICU.

"For many Muslims this will be seen as, 'Once again, the US supports attacks on a Muslim government and state," says David Smock, an expert at the US Institute of Peace who specializes in Africa and the interplay of politics and religion.

Mr. Smock sees little evidence to support State Department claims that the ICU controls an Al Qaeda cell in Somalia. But what does worry him, he says, is a Somalia that remains unstable because of fighting among warlords – which leads to the prospect of it becoming a major terrorist haven.

"We've seen this happen in Iraq," he says, "and I fear the same could happen here: A Muslim country that is exaggerated as a terrorist base is invaded by a non-Muslim power, and in the ensuing chaos it becomes one."

• Material from wire services was used in this report.

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