Iran nukes prompt concerns within Mideast

Some analysts say the US is so preoccupied with Iraq – and tied up in debate over whether it should engage Iran in diplomatic efforts to stabilize Iraq – that it has weakened its determination to stop a nuclear-armed Iran from emerging. They note that the resignation of John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN, who is a fierce opponent of nuclear proliferation to dangerous "rogue states," has lowered the US profile in the struggle with Iran at a crucial moment.

Others note that while the US goes along with diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear progress, President Bush continues to insist that "no options are off the table" in terms of guaranteeing that Iran never develops the bomb. They speculate that if Iran continues its nuclear march, the US could take military action to at least seriously damage its program before the end of Mr. Bush's term, claiming it had favored diplomatic action until the risk dictated another course.

In the meantime, Iran claims it has neared mastery of the nuclear cycle, from mining of uranium ore to its enrichment into fuel for nuclear facilities. Last weekend, Ahmadinejad announced his country had "begun" the installation of 3,000 centrifuges – which, if true, could be a major step toward large-scale uranium enrichment. He used the announcement to needle his international opponents, crowing that "resistance of the Iranian nation" has spurred the nuclear progress, even while forcing the world "to retreat tens of steps over Iran's nuclear issue," according to Iran's Fars news agency.

Nuclear experts say it is hard to say how much of this is "bluster" or to what degree it reflects real progress in the Iranian program. "A lot depends on what a phrase like 'beginning to install' really means," says David Kay, a security specialist at the Potomac Institute in Arlington, Va. "I don't think anyone would say they are 'mastering the fuel cycle,' which was another of [Ahmadinejad's] claims."

Mr. Kay notes, for example, that what is known about Iran's initial centrifuge "cascade," as the high-speed facility allowing uranium enrichment is called, suggests "they are still at a very, very preliminary stage" in their capabilities. "From what we hear the facility is down as much as it is up," he says. All this suggests Iran is still at least four years away from the ability to build a bomb, he says.

Yet as rudimentary as the program may still be, Luft says Iran is taking important but little-noticed steps to weather even weakened international sanctions. In a new report, his institute says Iran is acting to address its "Achilles' heel" – its lack of gasoline-refining capacity – by expediting construction of two new refineries, signing gasoline import contracts with "friendly countries" like Venezuela, and undertaking a crash conversion program to convert 1.2 million vehicles a year from gasoline to natural gas. Iran has the world's second-largest natural-gas reserve.

"They are taking all kinds of innovative measures, and showing by the high priority they are giving these measures that they do not intend to change course and capitulate on their nuclear program," Luft says. "It's become a matter of national pride."

In a similar way, he says that the Gulf countries are not talking about a nuclear program for energy reasons – but with national security in mind. "If you sit on top of the world's biggest pile of oil and gas, the last thing you need is nuclear energy," he says. "They would be doing this for security interests, not for energy."

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