Why Britain wants new nukes

When Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev first put their nuclear weapons on the negotiating table 20 years ago, it heralded a new era of disarmament and the hope – however faint – of a nuclear-free world.

That hope, already overshadowed by the proliferation of nuclear weapons to four new countries, dimmed further last week after Britain unveiled plans to spend around £20 billion ($39 billion) to replace its submarine-based missile deterrent known as Trident. The system, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said, would provide crucial "insurance" against threats in a changing world.

The move has divided opinion, but experts on both sides agree that the decision highlights the urgent need to revive some form of global nuclear weapons framework. The alternative is to risk a new arms race with many more powers than before and a heightened risk that a warhead might actually be used.

"When the cold war was over there was a hope, even an assumption, that the main reason for having nuclear weapons would disappear and they would be negotiated away," recalls Frank Barnaby, a nuclear physicist who witnessed a test more than 50 years ago, and opposes nuclear weapons. "That hasn't happened."

For a few years, it seemed that all five recognized nuclear powers – Russia, the US, France, China, and Britain – would embrace the new spirit of disarmament. The US and Russia negotiated down their stockpiles. Hollywood stopped making nuclear holocaust movies. The brinkmanship of mutually assured destruction (MAD) appeared more incongruous than ever. Nuclear was to defense what the sting is to the bee: pyrrhic.

But now, major nuclear deals like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) appear to be coming apart at the seams: On Friday, the US Congress passed a bill that reversed a 30-year policy that opposed nuclear cooperation with India because it is not an NPT signatory. Besides India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea also have atomic capabilities – not to mention Iran's nuclear pretension – and the "big five" are updating their systems, setting a poor example to powers who have thus far desisted.

"You can't have it both ways," says Dr. Barnaby. "It won't work [rearming and] telling others to disarm. You either get rid of nuclear weapons, or nuclear power will increase and with it the danger that nuclear weapons will one day be used."

In its defense, Britain points out that it is cutting its number of warheads from 200 to 160, leaving it with less than 1 percent of the world's warheads. Proponents argue that Britain's updated program will enable it be a "force for good." And it will keep recalcitrant enemies at bay, whoever they may be in 10, 20, or 40 years.

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