Global jihad's new front in Africa

But the increasingly open movements of Ethiopian troops in Somalia are fast becoming an emotional unifying force for the Islamists, who are calling on Somalis to defend their national sovereignty.

"I think in its present form, a foreign peacekeeping mission is more likely to exacerbate the problem," says Mr. Bryden. Small groups of foreign forces will have difficulty holding their own against Somali fighters, who specialize in hit-and-run attacks with their truck-mounted machine guns, he says.

But more troublesome is that foreign troops will play into the hands of the Islamists.

In any case, many Ethiopian officials and experts say that they have no choice but to fight. The looming war in Somalia is part of the unfinished business of Ethiopia's two-year border war with Eritrea, which ended in exhaustion rather than a negotiated peace treaty. Ethiopian officials allege that the rise of Somalia's Islamists was made possible by Eritrean logistical support, and a UN Monitoring Group report has charged that Eritrea, Egypt, Djibouti, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan have all contributed funds, arms, and technical support to help Somalia's Islamists take control.

Medhane Tadesse, an Ethiopian historian, says that Ethiopia has been forced into a corner by its neighbors, and will have to come out fighting.

"The idea of Eritrea is to get back at Ethiopia. The Arab bloc are doing this as part of a global Islamic issue," says Mr. Tadesse, director of the Center for Policy Research and Dialogue in Addis Ababa.

Tadesse says Ethiopia must fight, and the sooner the better. "The Islamists consider themselves revolutionaries, and somebody should stop them. Unless you do that, the Islamists may go short of targets before they go short of bullets," he says.

Abdikarim Farah, ambassador of the Somali transitional government, welcomed last week's UN resolution to arm his government and provide peacekeepers. "Whether this is a proxy war or not, it will happen, and if the Islamists succeed, it is going to be a regional conflict," he says.

But in a country that was once predominantly Christian, but is now 50 percent Muslim, all eyes are turning toward what Ethiopian Muslims would do if war was declared on another Muslim country.

Sheikh Sayeed Hassan, an ethnic Somali who runs a khat beit, where men come to chew khat, a leaf chewed for its stimulating effects, says that Ethiopia's Muslim community is hoping that war can be averted.

"People inside Somalia, they are saying that we have been fighting among ourselves for 60 years, but now, when the Islamic Courts are uniting the country, why do the foreign governments want to intervene?" says Sheikh Sayeed. "I think if foreign troops come, the Somali people will react."

He sighs. "Every day we expect war, but so far, there is no serious fighting. So we hope the government [of Ethiopia] will change its mind."

Page: 1 | 2