With or without EU, Turkey is rising

"[European business leaders] see Turkey as a very interesting and growing market that has a lot of opportunities," says Felix Howald, Europe director for the World Economic Forum (WEF), a Geneva-based organization that brings together leaders from business and politics.

A WEF report issued ahead of a recent high-level summit in Istanbul stated: "Turkey is perceived by many as a source of risk to Europe; it may be just the opposite, a potential source of major risk mitigation."

"Europe needs to look at Turkey in the context of the wider global risks facing it in the future."

Reacting to the possibility of the EU negotiations being partially frozen and of Turkey being forced to abandon the negotiating table, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Europe would be making a "dreadful mistake."

"Europe, not Turkey, would stand to lose," he said this week, adding that Turkey would still continue to pursue its membership goal, although it has a Plan B and C.

Mr. Erdogan didn't specify what those other plans are, but observers in Turkey believe Ankara can't afford to cast aside its engagement with Europe, no matter how rocky the relations.

Hugh Pope, an independent analyst based in Istanbul, says that even Turkey's growing involvement in the Middle East – often seen as laying the groundwork for an EU alternative – is predicated on the perception that predominantly Muslim Turkey is on the path to joining the European big leagues.

"The relationship is really important for Turkey's power. Even if it's not going anywhere, it needs to be seen as going somewhere," says Mr. Pope. "Turkey has always got to maintain the illusion that the European process is in motion. It will never repudiate Europe."

But Bahar Rumelili, an expert on Turkey-EU relations at Istanbul's Koc University, says the negotiations are as important for Brussels' image.

"For the EU, a healthy relationship with Turkey conveys the image of the EU as an inclusive organization and an international actor that is able to promote change and reform," she says. "There is a growing realization from the European side that to alienate Turkey would be a big mistake. It would damage a major part of the EU's image as an international actor."

The forces of public opinion and political expediency might still get in the way, however, with European politicians certainly giving the impression that they are happy to alienate Turkey.

French conservative presidential hopeful Nicholas Sarkozy kicked off his candidacy by declaring that "Turkey's place is not in the EU." German chancellor Angela Merkel has also made clear her desire to deny Turkey full membership. In that sense, some say a cooling-off period between Turkey and the EU might be a positive thing, particularly with public opinion in some European countries decidedly against Turkey's membership.

"I think a pause is absolutely vital at this moment because the European public is up in arms," says Pope.

"I think that Europe has to catch up with itself."

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