Middle East hot spots merging

The prospect of talks between Israelis and the Palestinians would have positive reverberations throughout the region, strengthening Western-allied Arab states at the expense of militant forces, say observers. It could also help the US assemble a broader coalition to isolate Iran in its quest for nuclear power.

In September, Philip Zelikow, a senior adviser to Rice, called the Israeli-Palestinian problem "the essential glue that binds a lot of these problems together."

Mohammed Dejani, a political science professor at Al Quds University, described the conflict as a "historic issue" in the Arab world. "A lot of the anger and resentment that's taking place regarding the policies of the US has been because of its stand on this issue," he says. "All radical regimes and movements are using this issue because among the masses in the Arab world there is a lot of sympathy regarding the suffering of the Palestinians."

But many argue that a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict wouldn't necessarily become a tipping point for ending the sectarian strife in Iraq and Lebanon.

Hizbullah called for mass protests in Beirut Saturday in an effort to bring down Lebanon's Western-backed government. Hizbullah leader Shiekh Hassan Nasrallah said the government had failed and peaceful protests should force it to resign.

Experts have also pointed out how the fate of the fragile cease-fire in Gaza is dependent to a large extent on the interests of Syria and Iran, which can influence political and military policy in the Palestinian territories through their patronage of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

During the press conference with Rice, President Abbas said that talks with Hamas on forming a unity government had reached an impasse. A power-sharing government between Hamas, which the US deems a terrorist organization, and Abbas's rival Fatah Party is seen as a precondition to progress in negotiations.

"The hardening of the Hamas position is due to the external factor," says a Palestinian analyst who requested anonymity, referring to the influence of Iran and Syria. "We have people from the outside dictating what's going on inside."

The regional linkages are increasingly being recognized in Israel, which in the past has preferred bilateral negotiations as the only means to solving the conflicts with its neighbors. In his speech this week, Olmert said he planned to reach out to moderate Arab states to help advance the peace process and even praised a four-year-old Saudi Arabian peace plan.

A group of dovish Israeli ex-military officers this week published a policy paper suggesting the opening of a strategic dialogue with the Arab moderates.

"We think that we have to cooperate with moderate Arab countries to reach peace with Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian," says Shaul Givoli, a spokesman for the Council on Peace and Security. "More and more people understand that the spread of fundamentalist Islam backed by nuclear weapons is a threat to all of the region. Not Qassams on Sderot."

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