Ecuador latest test for Latin leftists

But his selling point is a pledge to end the country's rampant corruption. On the campaign trail, he frequently brandishes a belt, called correa in Spanish, and gives the political establishment a simulated "whipping."

Correa's aggressive rhetoric in the lead up to the first round scared international investors, most of whom would prefer a Noboa win. But Correa has softened his tone ahead of Sunday's run-off, quieting market jitters. "Clearly the markets have a favorite," says Gianfranco Bertozzi, a Latin American strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, "but they are less anxious about it [than during the first round]. If Correa does win, on Monday, when the market opens, there will still be some volatility.... There will be people who don't feel particularly excited about Correa."

Noboa, an old-style populist who readily grants favors, puts on wild campaign events that often include live dance performances. During one recent rally in two of Quito's poorest neighborhoods, Noboa donated one computer and four wheelchairs. Indeed, the man who owns more than 100 companies, including Bonita, one of the largest banana plantations in the world, comes bearing gifts, including cash handouts of up to $500, or hundreds of dollars worth of flour, for example, to build up a local bakery.

For the US, it's not Noboa's handouts that are attractive but his business vision. He wants to reignite a stalled free trade agreement with the US and attract investment to create jobs, but it's the virtual barrier he'd form with Venezuela that many say the US really likes. "It would block eastern South America from western South America," says Larry Birns, of the left-leaning Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington. "You already have [conservative presidents in] Colombia and Peru in your pocket. You have Ecuador, too, if Noboa wins."

But voters here are increasingly skeptical of the political establishment, with 2 percent confidence in political parties, says Dr. Cordova of Cedatos-Gallup. Ecuador ranked just below Venezuela for most corrupt South American country by the watchdog group Transparency International's 2005 global ranking. "Every year it is worse," he says.

"If I had to vote right now, I'd be voting for the best of the bad," says Adriana Galarza, a business student. She says she has little faith that Noboa can manage the country well, but adds that she disagrees with Correa's stance on free trade. In the first round she voted for neither.

Says Cordova: "We have two populists, and with either of them Ecuador faces very difficult days in the future."

• Ms. Llana is Latin America correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

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