If Delta merges: fares up, fewer seats

Some analysts like Mr. Boyd doubt those touted savings can be achieved. He also thinks the airlines' route structures – which are similar, particularly in the South and East, where they own the competing Northeast corridor shuttles – could cause problems at the Department of Justice.

"It doesn't make any sense at all. The synergies aren't there like they're claiming," says Boyd. "And the DOJ might turn this down in a heartbeat, because it just decimates competition, particularly in the Deep South."

Other analysts also question whether the cut in capacity brought about by the merger would result in anything but a short-term gain for the industry as a whole, particularly if there's a recession next year. In that case, the majors might start increasing capacity to fend off competition from low-cost carriers, which have continued to expand their market share, says Kevin Mitchell of the Business Travel Coalition in Radnor, Pa.

And then, the industry could find itself right back where it is today: charging prices that are so low it is just barely able to make a profit.

Another question is how easy it will be to make one company from two that have very different corporate cultures. There are seniority lists to merge and very different unionized workforces to integrate. The companies even fly different planes.

"This is not an industry where mergers often go smoothly, even when both parties are willing participants," says Clint Oster, an aviation expert at Indiana University in Bloomington. "It's hard to believe that it's not going to be very difficult to do in this case, particularly because it appears to be more of an equivalent to a hostile takeover."

But other analysts, who believe next year will be a good one for the industry, say the merger will help consolidate what is still a fairly fragmented industry. They also believe that higher prices brought about by a merger not only are necessary, but could be here to stay.

"If you compare by historical standards, we're still flying very cheap," says Ray Neidl of Calyon Securities in New York. "Longer term, if you can continue to get some of the peripheral capacity out of the system, it will give [the majors] even stronger pricing power."

In the end, all the analysis could be academic. US Airways still has to convince Delta's creditors and a bankruptcy judge that a merged company could do better than Delta alone. It also has to win approval from the Department of Justice, which frowned on a merger between US Airways and United just a few years ago.

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