In talks with India, pressure is on Pakistan

Pakistan and India resumed their fragile peace talks Tuesday after nearly a year marked by bitterness and terrorist violence. But Pakistan – with its western and southern borders mired in escalating conflict – is at particular pains this week to secure progress with its nuclear rival, India.

In the west, Pakistan's government faces growing suspicion that it is ignoring – indeed, possibly supporting – Taliban militants fighting in Afghanistan. To the east, India's accusations have been nearly the same. It called off the last negotiating round in July after it accused Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), of masterminding the deadly train blasts that left 186 dead in Mumbai (Bombay).

Meanwhile, separatists in the southern province of Balochistan continue to sow violence, the latest claiming the lives of at least one security officer and two civilians Tuesday.

Pakistan cannot afford so many burning fires on its hands, observers say. Its greatest threat seems to be rising in the west, on the border with Afghanistan, and in the south, yet it maintains most of its troops in the east, a legacy of tensions with India. Reconciling with India is therefore a crucial step in stamping out the violence in other areas, freeing up political, diplomatic, and military resources.

On top of the two-fold accusations against Pakistan, terrorism inside the country will create additional pressures this week.

"The more difficulties it has internally, the more the calculus favors India," says Ajay Sahni, director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi. "India's position will tend to become a little more inflexible. Why make concessions at a time when your enemy is weakening?"

Analysts in both countries agree that the unrest, while unlikely to change the overall tone of the discussions, is liable to weaken Pakistan's position at the negotiating table. That means Paki- stan's pushing on the large issue of Kashmir, the Himalayan territory to which both sides stake claim, will fall on deaf ears.

Few expect concrete results. Instead, peace this week is likely to be made in small symbolic achievements.

The dialogue between the two countries, which intends to resolve territorial disputes and expand communication across the border, began in 2004 when the two sides teetered on the brink of their fourth war.

The focus during this week's talks, analysts say, is a proposed intelligence-sharing mechanism that could provide an unprecedented chance to end the animosity.

New Delhi still blames Pakistan's ISI for supporting the July train blasts, although it has backed off from disclosing evidence. Observers say it suggests either a softening of India's stance or a lack of credible evidence. Either way, the mistrust remains, bolstered by India's accusations last month that the ISI had attempted to penetrate India's military.

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