In new Senate, the middle rules

For Democrats, who swept back into power in both the House and Senate last week, the pledge to govern in a bipartisan way may not be postvictory rhetoric. At least in the Senate, it's a mandate of the math.

While an effective 51-49 majority allows Democrats to organize the Senate – Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont ran as independents – it is still nine votes short of the 60 votes now needed to advance controversial bills on issues ranging from taxes to the Iraq war.

"Nothing can be accomplished in this town unless it's on a bipartisan basis," said Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, after meeting with President Bush and Vice President Cheney at the White House on Friday.

"The only way the American people will know if President Bush is sincere, the Democratic Congress is sincere, is with results. And we're willing to give it a try," he added.

The terms of the Democrats' narrow victory make a politics of the center even more imperative. Most of the new Democrats in the Senate won by running as moderates or fiscal conservatives.

"They were carefully chosen not to reflect the liberal mainstream of the Democratic Party, but to reflect the more conservative mainstream of their states," says Rhodes Cook, a political analyst in Washington.

"It might be a return to the days when Democrats were technically a majority party, but when you put Republicans together with southern Democrats, they were the majority," he adds.

Then, there's Ben Nelson. Last year, the Nebraska Democrat voted against a majority of his party more than half the time, according to a survey by Congressional Quarterly. But so did Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) of Rhode Island. The two men often canceled each other's vote.

However, this year, Chafee lost. If past is prelude, that means a 50-50 Senate on many votes, with Vice President Cheney, as Senate president, breaking ties.

While Senate Democrats are expected to lock arms over issues such as the minimum wage, there may be a new centrist coalition on issues including immigration, national security, and privacy rights.

Incoming freshmen Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Jon Tester in Montana, and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania defined themselves as moderate, independent voices, often at odds with Democrats in Washington. A former Navy secretary in the Reagan administration, Jim Webb upset Sen. George Allen (R) of Virginia on a campaign that showcased independence.

Rep. Benjamin Cardin (D) of Maryland, who will succeed retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D), was one of the few House Democrats willing to work with Republicans on issues such as pension reform.

Conservative activists say that the centrist base of the new freshman class will limit how far the national Democratic Party can advance a more radical agenda.

"If people ran as liberals, I would be afraid for my issue [cutting taxes]. But there are very few Democrats who won running as liberals against conservative Republicans," says Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

For six years of the Bush presidency, Democrats have focused on blocking GOP initiatives. The next two years will showcase that Democrats can also govern, say party leaders in both the House and the Senate.

Democrats plan to advance a legislative program in the first 100 days of the 110th Congress that includes increasing the minimum wage, passing all the 9/11 Commission recommendations, cutting the cost of student loans, lifting the 2003 ban on negotiating lower drug prices for seniors through Medicare, and promoting energy independence. They're also gearing up for hard-hitting investigations on issues ranging from the Iraq war to the nation's energy policy.

If the party can deliver only gridlock in the next Congress, they will quickly lose those moderate and independent voters who delivered last week's victory, say activists with the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), a centrist think tank.

"If Democrats are smart, they can make these new and 'returned' Democratic voters part of an expanded party and an enduring national majority," argues a DLC position paper, "What's next for Democrats?" released Nov. 10.

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