A star of red-state Virginia has a fight on his hands

A few months ago, when the warm breezes of summer were wafting across Virginia's Blue Ridge Mountains, George Allen could justly expect only one result from Election 2006 – he would be reelected easily to the US Senate.

Senator Allen's supporters were already quietly looking beyond November. There were whispers in Republican circles about Allen running for the White House in 2008.

Yet as autumn drew near, there was an abrupt change in the political climate. The winds from the Blue Ridge grew cold. Very cold.

Jim Webb, a decorated, twice-wounded combat marine with family roots in the hamlets and hollows of Virginia's mountains, suddenly threatened Allen's comfortable lead.

Starting in February with no money and few supporters, Mr. Webb had built strength. In June, he won the Democratic Senate primary against an opponent who outspent him 3-to-1. As summer turned to fall, Webb picked up momentum. Allen was now fighting for his survival.

Political polls have seesawed. The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey found Webb slightly ahead, 47 percent to 44 percent.

This remains Allen's race to lose, however. Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, explains that in federal elections in Virginia, "Republicans almost always win the close races."

Republicans hope so. Otherwise, this election could become part of a major shift in Washington. A Democratic victory here, combined with other states where Republicans are in deep trouble, could tip the balance in the Senate to the Democrats, and give President Bush a rough finish to his second term.

GOP notables, including the president, have rushed to Virginia to help the senator's embattled cause. Mr. Bush raised $500,000 for Allen in a single day Oct. 19.

Democratic worthies, including former President Bill Clinton, smell an upset. Mr. Clinton, on the same day Bush was here, raised a similar $500,000 for the Webb campaign.

It's that close.

So why is Allen – one of only six men in Virginia history to be elected both governor and US senator – in such trouble? After all, he's well known and widely liked across the state. Though a native Californian, he has close ties here. He graduated with history and law degrees from the University of Virginia, and was a quarterback on Virginia's football team.

True to his college, founded by Thomas Jefferson, Allen preaches his adherence to "Jeffersonian principles," one of which is the centrality of the family to America's social and political order, notes Peter Onuf, Thomas Jefferson Memorial Foundation professor at the university.

To understand Allen's problems, however, one needs to look no further than the war in Iraq, as well as to an obscure word with Portuguese origins – "macaca."

First, Iraq. The war might not be such a problem for Allen, except for Webb. Allen has backed the president in the war from the outset. And Webb has opposed it. As security problems grow worse in Iraq, it is "advantage Webb."

What makes Webb so effective on Iraq in a conservative, pro-defense state like Virginia is his extensive military record along with a gravitas that drives home both the human and economic costs of the conflict.

A 1968 graduate of the United States Naval Academy, Webb later served as a Marine Corps company commander in the Vietnam War. He came away with the Navy Cross, Silver Star, two Bronze Stars, and two Purple Hearts. He knows first- hand the bitter price of war in blood, treasure, and heartbreak.

Some Democratic consultants privately lament that Webb is not what one of them calls "a natural politician" – something Webb readily concedes. On the campaign trail, Webb is a stern, straight-backed man of about 6 feet who seldom smiles and carries himself more like a drill sergeant than a glad-handing politician.

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