State race signals big defeat for Mexican leftist

Andrés Manuel López Obrador jolted Mexico City when he moved protesters to close down main streets in the wake of the nation's disputed July 2 presidential election. The dissent reached its peak when supporters named the defeated leftist president of a "parallel government" at a mass demonstration this fall.

But a month later, his supporters have packed up their tents, traffic is flowing, and many are wondering if his protest movement – which emerged amid allegations of massive electoral fraud – is now losing steam.

This weekend, a gubernatorial race in Tabasco – which voted heavily for Mr. Obrador, a native of the southern state – ended in defeat for the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate, despite Obrador having campaigned hard for his fellow party member. The loss is being viewed as a referendum on the future of Obrador's national protest movement.

"This is a reflection of his losing track with voters," says Rafael Fernandez de Castro, dean of international affairs at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. "The consequences are not going to be very good for [Obrador] or his movement."

The July 2006 presidential election was the closest in the nation's history, with the two main candidates split by half a percentage point. In September, after a lengthy and tense court review and partial recount, electoral officials finally certified Felipe Calderón, of President Vicente Fox's conservative National Action Party (PAN), as the official president-elect.

Leading up to the certification, Obrador and his supporters, who halted downtown traffic for seven weeks, pledged never to accept Calderón as president. Calling him a "usurper," they voted last month to establish their own government, causing columnists to question the stability of the country.

But these days even Obrador's supporters doubt that his parallel movement will amount to much. Although Mario Gutierrez, a valet in Mexico City, says he believes in Obrador's ideals and voted for him in the election, he also believes the movement is petering out. "It's a lost cause," he says. "They aren't going to gain anything."

Asked whether he believes a parallel government will be effective in helping the nation's poor, he says matter-of-factly: "I don't think there will be a parallel government."

Indeed, the defeat in Tabasco state could hinder efforts to forge a national movement. Obrador won 56 percent of the presidential vote in Tabasco, and spent recent weeks with PRD candidate César Raúl Ojeda. When the Monitor went to press, 94 percent of the votes had been counted and Andrés Granier, of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had 53 percent of the vote compared with 42.8 percent for Ojeda, making it statistically impossible for Ojeda to win. Ojeda alleges fraud and is threatening to challenge the results.

Page: 1 | 2