We wrote in late September about Somalia's Islamists, who captured the turbulent city of Mogadishu and brought both peace to the capital and apprehension to Somalis outside the capital and to Western nations.
Now, those Islamists have vowed a holy war on Ethiopia ,the BBC reports, after accusing Ethiopian troops of helping Somalian government troops seize Bur Haqaba. The town lies on the road between Baidoa, the base of the transitional national government, and Mogadishu.
An Islamist leader, wearing fatigues and holding an AK-47, said a "jihad" had been declared on Ethiopia, raising fears of a regional conflict.
"Heavily armed Ethiopian troops have invaded Somalia," said Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, seen as a moderate within the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). "They have captured Bur Haqaba. History shows that Somalis always win when they are attacked from outside."
Ethiopia freely admits to supporting the Somalian government in its battle against the Islamists, but denies any Ethiopian troops have crossed the border into Somalia. However, a BBC reporter says he saw a convoy of Ethiopian trucks in Baidoa carrying about 200 troops.
The Daily Telegraph reports that Western nations are concerned that if reports persist that Ethiopia is involved in Somalia's internal warfare, it might give Islamic radicals a reason to use Somalia "as a battleground for Islam against the West."
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Many Somalis see Ethiopia as a Christian imperialist power. There are unconfirmed reports of major operations against ethnic Somalis living in Ethiopia's south-eastern Ogaden province, further inflaming the situation.
It is unclear whether Mr Ahmed's forces are in a position to attack Ethiopian territory directly, but his troops are massed along the countries' shared border. Eritrea, Ethiopia's arch-foe, is widely suspected to be arming the fundamentalists as part of a proxy war that may plunge the Horn of Africa into an unprecedented regional conflict.
The Economist also writes that the risk of a regional conflict is growing, and says that Ethiopian claims of not being involved don't ring true. There have been eyewitness reports of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia, and also "credible reports" of Ethiopian planes landing at airstrips around the country.
... the Ethiopian involvement may have already triggered a conflict. The Islamists have consolidated their remarkable hold over central and south Somalia by appealing to nationalist as well as religious sentiment. By denouncing Ethiopia at every turn, the Islamists are reaching beyond the country's divisive clan politics. In response to the Ethiopian incursion, the Islamists in Mogadishu have declared a jihad, or holy war, against Ethiopia.
Particularly worrying, that declaration came from [Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who] had been involved in negotiations for a power-sharing deal with the transitional government in Baidoa. That now looks very much in doubt. A usually peaceful character, Mr Ahmed was seen dressed in combat fatigues and brandishing an AK-47 as he declared war. He told Somalis to "await orders" and announced the raising of a force to drive Ethiopians and foreign peacekeepers, including a few Ugandans, out of Somalia. He denounced some members of the transitional government as traitors.
The Economist writes that Ethiopia's motivation in this endeavor may be "mixed." The country's leaders believe that their longtime foe, Eritrea, is behind the arming of the Islamists. And it blames Somali militants for bombings in its capital city of Addis Ababa.
The Voice of America reports that the success of the Union of Islamic Courts has "dramatically altered the politics of the country," and has prompted global concern that Somalia could become an "Islamic Republic."
Ken Menkhaus, a former senior adviser to the UN operation in Somalia, describes the Islamic courts movement, saying "It is today, by far and away, the strongest political and military movement in Somalia, and is politically on the ascendance and holds most of the cards."
Menkhaus says the courts have expanded their control throughout much of south central Somalia, and, in most cases, without a fight, negotiating instead with local clan leaders. "And now their control extends roughly from the Kenyan border in lower Juba, most of middle Juba, across much of Bai region and then up the Shebele River – all of this is controlled by the Islamists. That leaves the autonomous state of Puntland beyond their reach, the secessionist state of Somaliland beyond their reach, and then (the) Geddo region and portions of Bai and Bakool regions in the hands of the transitional federal government," he says.
Mr. Menkhaus said the transitional government, which was back by the US and the United Nations, was known as a weak coalition by regional experts. For example, it excluded of the country's most powerful clans. And while some US officials say that some Al Qaeda operatives have taken refuge in Somalia, Menkhaus disagrees that Al Qaeda is trying to get a foothold in the country.
"I don't think it is going to attract foreigners beyond those who are dabbling. It is a place to dabble. It's actually a very difficult place for anyone to operate, whether you are working for [the United Nations] or Al Qaeda. It's very hard on the ground. It's very treacherous. There are better places to base yourself in East Africa than Somalia," he says.
The BBC reports that one reason the UIC may be encouraging a "national" response to the Ethiopian incursion is that "the papered-over cracks in the alliance are now becoming more noticeable."
The UIC is split between its Salafist [an off-shot of the hardline Saudi Wahhabi school of Islamic thought] and Qutubist tendencies [based on the writings of Egyptian Islamist thinker Sayyid Qutub - less atavistic and morefavorable to the West], led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and moderate cleric Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, respectively. Mr Aweys, on the US list of those allegedly linked to terrorism, is widely believed to be the genius behind the military campaign that led to the UIC's victory. But while he was secretly planning, Mr Ahmed, a Sudanese-trained former secondary school teacher, was slowly carving a niche for himself in the international media as the acceptable face of political Islam in Somalia.
The BBC writes that while Mr. Ahmed has spoken in favor of engagement with both the transitional government and the West, in Somalia it is the "rule of the gun" that counts, and for that reason, Mr. Aweys is the real power in the country.
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Feedback appreciated. E-mail Tom Regan.
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