The top NATO commander in Afghanistan warned Sunday that if the lives of Afghans don't improve within the next six months, a majority of them could switch their allegiance to the Taliban. Gen. David Richards, a British officer who commands NATO's 32,000 troops, told the Associated Press that he would like to have 2,500 more troops in the south of the country to help speed up reconstruction projects. General Richards said this area, which has seen intense fighting between NATO and Taliban forces, is "broadly stabilized," but if the NATO, US, and Afghan governments don't take this time to start reconstruction projects, 70 percent of the country could decide to back the Taliban.

"They will say, 'We do not want the Taliban but then we would rather have that austere and unpleasant life that might involve than another five years of fighting,'" Richards said in an interview.

"We have created an opportunity," following the intense fighting that left over 500 militants dead in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand, he said. "If we do not take advantage of this, then you can pour an additional 10,000 troops next year and we would not succeed because we would have lost by then the consent of the people."

NATO extended its security mission last week to all of Afghanistan, taking command of 12,000 US troops in the war-battered country's east. The mission is the biggest ground combat operation in NATO history and gives Richards command of the largest number of US troops under a foreign leader since World War II.

Richards also urged "partnership and cooperation" with Pakistan rather than confrontation. Military commanders say that many Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters move back and forth across the border between the two countries with impunity, and Afghan and Western officials have accused Pakistan of not doing enough to stop the insugents' movements. Pakistan rejects the charge.

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The Toronto Star reports that Canada's defense minister, Gordon O'Connor, is also calling on other NATO countries, especially from Europe, to lift restrictions on the movement of their troops. Mr. O'Connor says NATO forces need to be mobile, so that they can be moved around the country to deal with crises as they develop.

Jim Miklaszewski, the chief Pentagon correspondent for NBC News, wrote last week, however, that "total victory appears as distant and remote as the long-embattled nation itself." He points out that the Taliban have increasingly adopted the tactics of Iraqi insurgents, using car and roadside bombs to launch attacks. The number of suicide bombings has gone up by 400 percent and roadside bombs have more than doubled.

The Afghan government continues to struggle to establish its credibility and spread its authority beyond Kabul. At the same time the US recently cut developmental aid to Afghanistan by 30 percent and less than half of the $15 billion promised in international aid has been delivered.

Meanwhile, opium production in Afghanistan has exploded. A United Nations report in September revealed a bumper poppy crop produced 6,100 metric tons of opium, a 50 percent increase over the previous year.

Mr. Miklaszewski also writes that Gen. James Jones, the Supreme NATO Commander, believes the real danger to Afghanistan's future lies in the opium trade. He recently warned that Afghanistan is close to becoming a "narco state."

The impact of the drug trade has become so pervasive it reaches almost all levels of Afghan society, breeding corruption within the government and creating an entire class of Afghan farmers and laborers addicted to the money generated by the drug trade. In addition, part of the $3 billion dollars in annual drug profits is being used to finance, train and equip the Taliban in Afghanistan (an irony, since the Taliban government was quite effective until its overthrow in 2001 in curtailing the opium trade).

In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, Dr. Barnett R. Rubin of New York University, a leading expert on Afghanistan, said the failure of the Bush administration to push Pakistan to stop its support for the Taliban has put the Afghanistan government in a "precarious situation." He says Afghanistan is "at a potential tipping point because the expectations of people in Afghanistan and throughout the region have changed quite dramatically and they really see the Taliban as having the initiative and being on the way to victory."

They [the Afghan people] feel all the trends are going in the Taliban's favor and the government and the international community are really not responding to it effectively at all. I think the predominant, overwhelming perception in the region is that the United States is not serious about trying to succeed in Afghanistan. Because what do they see? They see that we immediately turned our attention to Iraq, that the day after September 11, 2001, [Defense Secretary Donald M.] Rumsfeld wanted to bomb Iraq.

They see that we've spent perhaps seven times as much money in Iraq, that we put more troops into Iraq, and that we tolerate Pakistan's support for the Taliban, while we still treat General [Pervez] Musharraf, [Pakistan's president] as an ally.

Dr. Rubin also says that despite the military victories in the south recently, commanders on the ground know that this is "not primarily a military battle." Unless the amount of aid money for Afghanistan is seriously increased, there is "no way to translate these victories into strategic successes."

• GOP seader says Anaheim council Republican candidate backs extremist groups (Los Angeles Times)
• Harper complains to Bush about Arar (Toronto Star)
• America ponders cutting Iraq in three (The Times of London)
• Rice, in Baghdad, insists that Iraqis are 'making progress' (New York Times)

Feedback appreciated. E-mail Tom Regan.