Can Rice rally Mideast against Iran?

Mr. Stacher says that while all eight of the Arab governments are eager to limit the possibilities Iran could go nuclear – particularly Saudi Arabia, which has feared Shiite expansionism since Iran's Islamic revolution – they will be urging the US against military action because of potential blow-back against their own regimes, none of which are democratic and six of which are monarchies.

Mr. Nafai agrees, and says that while the US might get fairly tepid support for sanctions against Iran, he doesn't see an eventual Arab coalition backing military action, largely because of the unresolved conflict over the Palestinian territories. "As long as the US continues to support unconditionally Israel's policies in the region and is not trying to seriously help find a settlement it will be almost impossible to form a strong coalition."

The recent confrontation between the Shiite Hizbullah and Israel boosted the regional popularity of Mr. Ahmadinejad, who supports Hizbullah, and hurt the standings of regimes like Egypt and Saudi Arabia because they were seen by their people as insufficiently condemning Israel's strikes inside Lebanon.

Rice has also adopted a new rhetorical approach on this trip, in which America's allies in the region are cast as moderates, and its enemies as extremists, something she said was demonstrated by the war in Lebanon.

"When Lebanon happened ... [we] got in very stark relief a clear indication that there are extremist forces and moderate forces" in the region, she told reporters. "The countries that we are meeting ... is a group that you would expect to support the emerging moderate forces in Lebanon, in Iraq, and in the Palestinian territories."

"The President isn't going to stop pressing for democracy because he believes that ultimately it's the force that will stabilize the Middle East most," Rice said. "But it does not mean that even if states ... are not yet transformed to democracy that we're not going to have relations with them and that we're not going to work together to resist extremist forces in the region."

Stacher says her comments at the start of her trip make the current administration policy on the region look similar to those of past administrations, when the stability and support of allies was more important than promoting change. "The Bush administration has redesigned policy toward the region. Nondemocratic states that are friendly are being painted as moderates and unfriendly undemocratic states are being branded as extremists. The rhetoric is about to reflect reality"

None of the Arab countries Rice is talking to on this trip – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman – are democracies, and most severely limit free speech and political organization.

For many Arabs, says Nafai, ongoing US support for these "despotic" regimes means the promises of President Bush to promote democracy aren't believed, and residents of these countries end up more inclined to support US enemies.

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