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For Supreme Court's new term: rise of a new centrist

Key abortion and racial cases could signal whether Justice Kennedy shifts court to the right or maintains precedents.

By Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor / October 2, 2006



WASHINGTON

Abortion regulations and race-based public school enrollment plans are among major national issues at the US Supreme Court this year in a term that offers the first real insight into the constitutional vision of the high court under Chief Justice John Roberts.

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Constitutional scholars and other analysts are watching closely to see if respect for legal precedent – the principle of stare decisis – emerges as a defining approach, or whether the Roberts court will seek to build on the conservative agenda of the Rehnquist court, with sweeping rulings that erode or erase liberal precedents.

A major factor in the direction of the court, whose 2006-2007 term begins Monday, is Justice Anthony Kennedy, who is emerging as a primary centrist power on the court following the retirement of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Analysts say he may provide the swing vote in several key cases.

"The absence of Justice O'Connor will be one of the most fundamental changes the court has seen," former acting solicitor general and Duke Law School Professor Walter Dellinger told reporters in a recent preterm briefing.

"It is difficult to overstate the significance of that shift," said former solicitor general and Pepperdine Law School Dean Kenneth Starr, in the same briefing. "All eyes will be on Kennedy."

Justice Kennedy's new judicial clout will be on full display in both the race and abortion cases. Similar cases were decided by 5-4 majorities in recent years with Justice O'Connor joining the court's four liberal justices. In contrast, Kennedy dissented in both cases.

Last term was a year of historic transition for the court with the passing of Chief Justice William Rehnquist and the retirement of O'Connor. It marked the arrival of Mr. Roberts as chief justice and Samuel Alito as an associate justice.

The change in the high court's roster is expected to swing the balance of power to the right, possibly overturning legal precedents on a range of hot-button issues, including both the abortion and race cases, analysts say.

Although it is not clear how Roberts and Justice Alito will vote in these cases, many analysts suggest they are likely to align with the court's conservative wing and that Kennedy will be in position to provide the decisive fifth vote.

Partial-birth abortion is key case

At issue in the abortion case is the constitutionality of the federal Partial-Birth Abortion Act of 2003. The law was passed by the Republican-controlled Congress in open defiance of an earlier Supreme Court ruling that so-called partial-birth abortions could not be banned by states unless lawmakers provided an exception in cases where a woman's health might be threatened by the unavailability of the banned procedure.

Congress swept aside the court-imposed requirement by declaring in its law that there were no circumstances when a partial-birth abortion might be medically necessary. If no circumstances exist, lawmakers concluded, there is no need for a health exception. That Congressional finding disregards the testimony of some medical experts who say the procedure can be necessary in certain cases.

One key issue in the case is whether the high court should defer to Congress on what is medically necessary or set the standard itself.

Three district courts and three federal appeals courts have struck down the 2003 statute, ruling that it is unconstitutional because it fails to provide a health exception as required by the Supreme Court.

Despite universal defeat in the lower courts, supporters of the law hope that O'Connor's retirement and Alito's arrival may have tipped the balance of power on the issue.

In 2000, the Supreme Court struck down a Nebraska law nearly identical to the federal law by a 5-4 vote. Justice Kennedy wrote one of the most impassioned dissents of his 18 years on the court. "The majority views the procedures from the perspective of the abortionist, rather than from the perspective of a society shocked when confronted with a new method of ending human life," he wrote. He stressed in his dissent that he opposed "the decision, the reasoning, and the judgment."

Will Kennedy stick to precedent?

With the possibility of the court divided 4-4 on the issue, Kennedy may wield the decisive vote. If he sticks to the analysis in his dissent in the Nebraska case, court watchers say the law will be upheld. If he adheres to his strongly held belief in stare decisis – affirming precedent even when a justice disagrees with it – the federal law will be struck down.

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