csmonitor.com - The Christian Science Monitor Online

Terrorism & Security
posted September 25, 2006 at 12:30 p.m.

US intelligence report: Iraq war breeding more terrorists

White House 'strongly disagrees' with spy agencies' assessment.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

A classified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) contends that the war in Iraq has increased Islamic radicalism, and has made the terror threat around the world worse. Based on information from US government officials who had seen the document and spoke on condition of anyonymity, The New York Times reports that the NIE document, titled "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States," says the war plays a much more direct role in the spread of Islamic radicalism around the world than has previously been indicated by the White House, or in a recent report by the US House intelligence committee.

The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by US intelligence agencies since the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, and it represents a consensus view of the 16 different spy services inside government. The estimate asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread around the globe.

An opening section of the report, "Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement," cites the Iraq war as a reason for the diffusion of jihad ideology. The report "says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse," one US intelligence official said.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the 30-page report presents "an array of disturbing trends in the war on terrorism." The report focuses primarily on the forces that are changing the structure of the Islamic terrorist movement, as it evolves from a highly centralized organization to a much more fragmented ideological movement.

"It paints a fairly stark picture of what we all know, and that this is a movement that is spreading and gaining momentum around the world," said the official familiar with the document. "Things like the Iraq war have given the terrorists recruiting tools and places to ply their trade and a training ground." The official said the estimate touches on a number of factors fueling the jihadist movement, but that "the reference to Iraq was the main one."

A US intelligence official who has seen the document said that many of the report's findings were outlined in a speech in San Antonio in April by Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the former principal deputy director of national intelligence. Hayden has since become director of the CIA. Hayden did not single out the Iraq war in the speech as a particularly powerful force shaping terrorist networks. But he did acknowledge "the centrality of Iraq" and said the conflict there and how it is portrayed in Islamic media continue to cultivate support for the global jihadist movement.



Sign up to be notified daily: Find out more. Subscribe via RSS Feed: What is this?

The Guardian reports that the NIE document "contradicts" recent optimistic assessments from the Bush administration. It also "furthers the divisions between the military and politicians in their assessment of the impact of US policy in Iraq."

The Los Angeles Times reports that the White House, sensing the importance of the issue of Iraq during an election year, moved quickly to counter the impact of the NIE report. White House spokesman Peter Watkins said the Bush administration "sharply disagreed" with the findings of the 16 intelligence agencies, saying "anti-American fervor in the Muslim world began long before the Sept. 11 attacks."

"Their hatred for freedom and liberty did not develop overnight," Watkins said. "Those seeds were planted decades ago." He said the administration has sought in Iraq to root out hotbeds of terrorism before they grow. "Instead of waiting while they plot and plan attacks to kill innocent Americans, the United States has taken the initiative to fight back," Watkins said.

President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney also have highlighted the war in Iraq as the main thrust in the fight against terrorism, contending that the world is safer overall without Saddam Hussein in power in Iraq. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a likely presidential candidate in 2008, agreed with the White House view that radicalism predates the toppling of Saddam, and that fundamentalists are always looking for reasons to recruit new jihadists.

Reuters reports that US Intelligence Director John Negroponte said the sections of the document reported on by the media show "only a small handful" of the conclusions from a broad strategic assessment of global terrorism.

But The New York Times reports that some Democratic and Republican politicians felt the report was another indication of an already bad situation in Iraq. Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts said it showed that the Bush administration policy in Iraq was acting as a "recruiting poster" for terrorists. Republican Sen. Arlen Spectre of Pennsylvania said on CNN that "the war in Iraq has intensified Islamic fundamentalism and radicalism," although he added "that's a problem that nobody seems to have an answer to."

In a related story, CBSNews reports that Al Qaeda has scaled down its leadership structure in Afghanistan, and is preparing to shift its main decisionmaking component to somewhere else in the Middle East, probably Iraq.

[An Arab diplomat in Pakistan] said there were reports recently of al Qaeda ordering its Arab members who remained in the Pakistan-Afghan border region to move to the Middle East, after the group's leaders concluded that their followers in local militant groups around the region were capable of carrying on al Qaeda's work. "This decision was meant to close the Al Qaeda Arab chapter in this part of the world. But Al Qaeda remains in the shape of local non-Arab militants who would carry on its work" he added. A Saudi security advisor told CBS News that the exodus of Arab Al Qaeda members, mostly originating from the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, began in mid to late July, and continued throughout August. Saudi intelligence has not yet determined why this exodus has taken place, says the advisor.

Another Arab diplomat said he had seen reports just in the past fortnight of Arab fighters moving from the Pak-Afghan region, either using the land route via Iran or one of the central Asian countries, with some trying to pass through Pakistan.

"The destination of these people is back to the Middle East. Iraq we know is right now the biggest battleground for such people and I have heard enough on the subject of Iraq working as a magnet for militant groups to go along with the view that some may be heading to Iraq," said the diplomat who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Pakistani officials said the reports of Al Qaeda movement might be connected with recent reports of the death of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from an illness, or they could just be an indication of the continuing decentralization of the terrorist movement.

Also...