In a sobering assessment of the situation in Iraq, Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, chief of the US Central Command, said that it is unlikely that there will be any US troop reduction in Iraq before next spring, and that there may be a need for even more troops over the next few months.

The Washington Post reports that General Abazaid said that if sectarian violence is left unchecked, "it could be fatal" for Iraq.

... Abizaid, who has overseen the US military strategy in Iraq since July 2003, said he had hoped six months ago for the withdrawal of several thousand US troops from Iraq by now. "We clearly did not achieve the force levels that we had hoped to," he said, citing sectarian unrest, ongoing weaknesses in the capabilities of Iraqi security forces – in particular the police – and the five-month political void in the country after the December 2005 national elections.

Asked point-blank whether the United States is winning in Iraq, Abizaid replied: "Given unlimited time and unlimited support, we're winning the war."

Abizaid said the increased presence of US and Iraqi troops in Baghdad had reduced violence levels "slightly," but that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan is likely to bring increased violence as it has in past years. He also pointed to the difficulty of stopping the death squads of the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

"The bodies are piling up in areas that are not necessarily the same areas that we're patrolling," he said, acknowledging that even with the increased forces in Baghdad, US troops cannot be everywhere in the sprawling city of 5 million people. US and Iraqi troops are methodically clearing neighborhoods in Baghdad, while the military is also attempting to control movement into the city at 28 locations. The US military plans to reevaluate the security plan in Baghdad in December, by which time more Iraqi troops should have moved into the capital, he said.

While dampening hopes of troop cuts this year, Abizaid left open the possibility that the US troop level could be increased. "We'll bring in more forces if we have to," he said.

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The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Iraq Study Group, a nonpartisan 10-member panel that will present detailed recommendations to the White House and Congress later this year, echoed Abizaid's findings.

"Time is short. The level of violence is great. The margin of error for the Iraqi government is slight," said [former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana] during a news conference Tuesday.

The 10-member study group, charged with making recommendations for future U.S. policy to President Bush and Congress, recently returned from a four-day trip to Baghdad, during which members met with a range of Iraqi politicians and U.S. officials in the heavily protected Green Zone. Those talks cemented the view that time is short, said Baker. "We heard it on our trip from Iraqi officials and officials of the United States government," he said.

The New York Times reports that Abizaid comments are the first indication that it may be well into 2007 before there is any signficant reduction in troop levels in Iraq.

Abizaid acknowledged that confidence among Iraqis in their police remained low and that it was important for the government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to purge the police of sectarian militias and to improve the economy.

Abizaid also raised concerns about the increased fighting in Afghanistan, which has had intensified violence in the south, despite the presence of 21,000 American troops and another 19,000 from others countries under NATO command. That is the most American troops deployed to the country at any time, even during the 2001 invasion, though an American military official said the number of American combat troops in the overall total was smaller than it had been in the past.

Saying "I'll believe it when I see it," Abizaid was also critical of the recent announcement by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf of an agreement with tribal leaders in the turbulent north of that country. "I'm very, very skeptical about this notion that people who have been harbored in the tribal areas are no longer going to be harbored."

The Associated Press reports that the Penatagon may soon face a difficult choice: "either make more frequent call-ups of some National Guard and Reserve troops or expand still further the size of the active-duty Army."

The Army has committed itself to not mobilizing National Guard and Reserve soldiers for war duty more than one year out of five. But in light of the possibility that troop requirements for Iraq and Afghanistan will remain high into 2007 and beyond, officials are already discussing whether in some cases Guard or Reserve soldiers may have to be recalled more frequently.

If it is decided to stick to the once-in-five-years formula for the Guard and Reserve, then it may be necessary to increase the size of the active-duty Army, the official said. The Army already is on a path to grow by 30,000 soldiers, to 512,000. It expects to end this fiscal year Sept. 30 at about 504,000 soldiers.

Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution, says the military should have started planning to grow beyond its current level of 512,000 troops at the onset of the Iraq war, but was stopped by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld because of worries over long-term financial costs. Mr. O'Hanlon said this may call for drastic measures, including offering a fast-track to US citizenship to foreigners abroad if they first serve in the US military.

MarketWatch also reports that Abizaid warned that the spread of new Iranian weapons throughout the region was a growing threat to the US and its allies.

Gen. John Abizaid, head of US Central Command, said recent advances include rocket-propelled grenade launchers and new types of roadside explosives. At a Defense Writers Group breakfast, he said Iran poses a variety of threats in addition to its own military forces. In some cases, these weapons may have made their way into Iraq with the direct aid of the Iranian government, Abizaid said. In others, like that of the RPG-29 launchers, weapons sent to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon may have traveled to Iraq without Iran's help.

"In the part of the world that we operate in, there's a tremendous amount of weapons smuggling going on all the time," Abizaid said.

Finally, AP reports that the United Nations said the number of deaths in Iraq during the months of July and August hit 6,599, "a record-high number that is far greater than initial estimates suggested."

The report attributed many of the deaths to the rising sectarian tensions that have pushed Iraq toward the verge of civil war.

"These figures reflect the fact that indiscriminate killings of civilians have continued throughout the country while hundreds of bodies appear bearing signs of severe torture and execution style killing," the report said. "Such murders are carried out by death squads or by armed groups, with sectarian or revenge connotations."

The UN investigators who collected the data said it was likely that even the figure of 6,599 was low. Their report also said that torture was a growing problem, and that many of the bodies showed significant evidence of it.

• Italy ends military role in Iraq, says 'mission accomplished' (Bloomberg)
• Failed suicide bomber sentenced to death in Jordan (Reuters)
• Toxic shock: How Western rubbish is destroying Africa (Independent of London)
• Pentagon ordered to identify detainee abuse cases (Reuters)
• I was a PR intern in Iraq (AlterNet)
• US-Israel: A crisis of faith over Christian Evangelicals' help (Inter Press Service)

Feedback appreciated. E-mail Tom Regan.