Yemen moves along volatile path to democracy

"We used to get only one choice, but we have many choices now – both for president and at the local level," he says.

Yemen's month-long election campaign has shown all the signs of popular participation, with extensive media coverage and mass rallies in every major city.

Half-a-million people turned out on Monday to hear Saleh's final speech in Sanaa. He was dressed in a Western-style suit and surrounded by traditional Yemeni displays of horse-riding and dancing to create a spectacular piece of political theater.

By contrast, Shamlan's finale attracted fewer than 80,000 people. Supporters complained that police were preventing them from reaching the stadium. But people in the crowd were adamant that their man would bring the about changes that Yemen needs.

"I'm voting for bin Shamlan because he's an honest man. I believe he'll eradicate the corruption that dominates our government and institutions," says Sheikh Faisal bin Ali al-Gabri.

Away from the throng, others are more cynical about the prospects for the future. "Nothing will change as a result of this election," says one retired clerk, who has no intention of voting Wednesday. "There is no such thing as an Arab democracy. It's just an illusion."

Hafez al-Bukari, director of the Yemen Polling Center, says the opposition coalition is not competing on a level playing field.

"The GPC is the dominant party, both in terms of resources and control of media coverage," he says. "After decades of the status quo, people don't distinguish between the GPC and the state. They think that all benefits arising from the state are actually coming from the president's party."

During parliamentary elections in 2003, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) expressed concerns that the vote had been undermined by political intimidation, vote-buying, underage voting, and inappropriate behavior by the security forces.

On Wednesday, a 100-strong team of observers from the European Union will assess procedures in every governorate in the country in Yemen's largest monitoring operation to date.

Whatever the outcome of the vote, Yemen must eventually move toward its first peaceful transfer of power, observers say, even if turns out to be in-house affair. The front-runner for succession is currently Saleh's son, Ahmed, who is head of the Republican Guard and Special Forces.

With widespread poverty, rapid population growth, and a weak economy reliant on modest oil reserves that are less than a decade from running out, the challenges facing the country at the next elections in 2013 will only worsen unless substantial and effective reforms are introduced in the new presidential term.

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