The Toronto Star reports that in the foreseeable future, groups like the Taliban and Al Qaeda will "have no problem replenishing their stock of young fighters, suicide bombers, explosives experts and logistical planners, virtually at will."
The reason for the ease with which these groups will be able to recruit can be found in the demographics of the Middle East. The Star notes that between "the 1970s and 1990s, a dramatic drop in infant mortality coupled with high fertility rates and migration into cities" has led to an enormous population boom in the Middle East. Between one-half and two-thirds of the 380 million people who live in the region are 24 years old or younger.
The region's demographic profile is the exact opposite of the West's, where populations are aging and fertility rates dropping. Canada's birth rate is 1.5 per woman; the global average 2.2. But the majority of Muslim states still average three-to-seven births per woman. At the same time, the region's illiteracy rate, though starting to drop, is still higher than the international norm. The World Bank estimates there are 10 million youngsters not in school, a figure that could rise to 14 million within the next decade.
Another problem is that many of these youths live in authoritarian regimes that haven't been able to compete in the global marketplace, leading to economic and political conditions that make it easier for Islamists to recruit them. The Star notes that there is a name for these disaffected youths, the hayateen, "the men who lean against walls."
In a major report on the implications for US foreign policy, a Brookings Institution task force cautioned that it's not the youth boom alone that matters, but the specific conditions in which it is emerging. To wit: Tens of millions of young Muslim men are living under regimes that are politically oppressive, economically incompetent, virulently anti-American and awash in an "us vs. them" view of the world. Militant Islamism, said the report, serves as a "vehicle of protest" everywhere except where it is actually in power, as in Iran.
"In societies where justice is patently absent, the stimulus to radicalized action is high. Youth have far less to lose, are less patient, less cautious. They're more susceptible to overdrawn and simplistic analyses of existing social problems, their source and their solution."
The Star reports that Cheryl Benard, a senior analyst at the RAND Corporation and director of its initiative on Middle Eastern youth, says that "after the [Iraq] war, the US dropped the ball. We should have been hiring and inspiring kids. The terrorist groups are doing that. We aren't."
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One example of how Western policy may be contributing to this crisis can be seen in the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank. Reuters reports how students who attend public schools in these areas are no longer in school because their teachers are on strike after not being paid for three months or longer. These schools were run on funds that came from Western donors, which have now halted their donations after the election of the Hamas government. But private schools run by Hamas are still running and crowded with students.
When the United States and other Western powers cut off direct aid to the government in March, Washington's goal was to undercut support for the Islamic militant group, not increase demand for its network of private schools and health clinics.
Then Middle East envoy James Wolfensohn warned at the time that the aid freeze might backfire. He called the threat of a school shutdown, which would turn youths onto the streets, "the worst-case scenario" that could fuel a new cycle of violence.
MSNBC reports on how Muslim youth in Britain hear many different voices. Many are trying to move away from extremist teachings.
White Chapel in East London – home to one of the city's most established Muslim communities. It's also home for 18-year-olds Eklima Begum and Navida Quadi. Both openly denounce terrorism.
"I'd use the example of our prophet to tell them that it's not the right way," Navida Quadi says. "It not going to be effective."
But others here see it differently. This area has the city's highest concentration of young Muslims, many of whom are the targets for radical recruiters. Yet some Muslim leaders are trying to make sure young people hear other voices, too. "If we can articulate their views in ways which are part of the mainstream, I don't think there would be as much problem as you see now," says Muslim youth leader Sheik Aliur Rahman.
But MSNBC notes that young Muslims often disagree with US and British foreign policy in the Middle East, and that can make it less likely to feel harmony with Western ideals.
"Those of us who have children try to educate and guide them," says Azzam Tamimi with the Institute for Islamic Thought. "But so long as there is this crisis in the world – a deep crisis in the world – nothing we do is sufficient on its own."
The InterPress Service (IPS) reports some moderate Muslims and Arabs, including youths, are avoiding travel or study in the US because of the treatment some have received from customs, border, or law enforcement authorities when they arrive to America. And it is leading to a belief in the Middle East and southeast Asia that the treatment is not just about a heightened sense of security after 9/11.
Prof. Ebtisam Al Kitbi of UAE University said in an IPS interview: "This is becoming a phobia and one wonders where this will all lead to. The colour of our skin or our religion determines which line we have to stand in at US airports and then they examine all our belongings wearing gloves as if we have some kind of disease – our dark skin and nationalities seem to give the westerners an excuse to subject us to all sorts of discrimination without giving any reason, and that is atrocious."
According to Ahmed Salah, a Dubai-based analyst, "There is no harm in increasing security at airports – after all, if the threats to passenger airlines prove true, then even our people could get killed. But these checks must be across the board and every passenger must be subjected to the same scrutiny and that, too, politely. But discriminatory treatment that makes headlines seems to be the order of the day. Don't humiliate us just because we are Muslims, or anyone else for that matter ... The US government is letting political propaganda influence its thinking and that is turning into an obsession."
The IPS report notes that some students are now going to Canada to pursue their studies, rather than to the US.
A recent survey by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed that a majority of Americans support racial profiling of "people who look Middle Eastern" at airports and other places.
Last week, The Times of India reported that Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, speaking at a ceremony in Istanbul, Turkey marking the inauguration of the 56-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference's Youth Forum, called on Muslim youth to turn away from extremism.
"The Muslim youth must be prepared to serve humanity in the noble tradition of Islam," Aziz said at the ceremony on Sunday held at a former Ottoman palace by the Bosporus. "We want them to be proud and progressive Muslims."
"Extremism and terrorism which have maligned our noble faith must be curbed," he said.
The goal of the youth forum is to support the United Nations "alliance of civilizations" initiative. The UN project is being jointly sponsored by Turkey and Spain "to overcome misunderstandings between the West and the Arab and Muslim world."
- Traveling while Muslim: 32 tips to avoid trouble (The American Muslim)
- Advocates for Muslim Women [in Germany] face constant danger (Der Spiegel)
- Largest Muslim group in America elects Canadian woman as leader (Associated Press)
- IAEA protests "erroneous" US report on Iran (Reuters)
Feedback appreciated. E-mail Tom Regan.
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