Terrorism & Security
posted September 5, 2006 at 12:00 p.m.

Report: Israel 'preparing for possible war' with Syria, Iran

Sources say that the conflict with Hizbullah has changed the thinking of Israel's military.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

Concluding that "too much attention" has been paid to the Palestinians, Israel is reportedly shifting its focus to war planning against Syria and Iran.

The Times of London reported Sunday that the conflict with Hizbullah, which was far more difficult than the Israeli military thought it would be, has lead to a strategic rethink.

"The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli defence agenda, higher than the Palestinian one," said an Israeli defence source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General Eliezer Shkedi, the commander of the air force, was placed in charge of the "Iranian front", a new position in the Israeli Defence Forces. His job will be to command any future strikes on Iran and Syria.

Iran's continued pursuit of a nuclear program means that war "is likely to become unavoidable," according to the Israeli military sources.

"In the past we prepared for a possible military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities," said one insider, "but Iran's growing confidence after the war in Lebanon means we have to prepare for a full-scale war, in which Syria will be an important player."

A new infantry brigade has been formed named Kfir (lion cub), which will be the largest in the Israeli army. "It is a partial solution for the challenge of the Syrian commando brigades, which are considered better than Hizbullah's," a military source said.



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But Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek International, writes in his World View column that those who say that Iran is like Nazi Germany and who make comparisons to the year 1938 in Europe are barking up the wrong tree. In fact, he writes, "Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has gone from being an obscure and not-so-powerful politician to a central player in the Mideast, simply by goading the United States."

To review a bit of history: in 1938, Adolf Hitler launched what became a world war not merely because he was evil but because he was in complete control of the strongest country on the planet. At the time, Germany had the world's second largest industrial base and its mightiest army. (The American economy was bigger, but in 1938 its army was smaller than that of Finland.) This is not remotely comparable with the situation today.

Iran does not even rank among the top 20 economies in the world. The Pentagon's budget this year is more than double Iran's total gross domestic product ($181 billion, in official exchange-rate terms). America's annual defense outlay is more than 100 times Iran's. Tehran's nuclear ambitions are real and dangerous, but its program is not nearly as advanced as is often implied. Most serious estimates suggest that Iran would need between five and 10 years to achieve even a modest, North Korea-type, nuclear capacity.

Mr. Zakaria writes that while Iran frustrates US and Western interests and causes problems for Israel, it is time to "get some perspective."

The United States is far more powerful than Iran. And, on the issue of Tehran's nuclear program, Washington is supported by most of the world's other major powers. As long as the alliance is patient, united and smart – and keeps the focus on Tehran's actions not Washington's bellicosity – the odds favor America. Ahmadinejad presides over a country where more than 40 percent of the population lives under the poverty line; his authority is contested, and Iran's neighbors are increasingly worried and have begun acting to counter its influence. If we could contain the Soviet Union, we can contain Iran. Look at your calendar: it's 2006, not 1938.

In Israel, Ha'aretz reports that Shin Bet, the Israeli security service, has launched a drive to recruit high-tech "geeks" to help fight the "war on terror."

Shin Bet sources admit the ad campaign is also intended to change the organization's image. For many, the first thing that springs to mind at the mention of Shin Bet is torture. The people in the service are tired of that. They want the Shin Bet to be associated with advanced technology and software development.

"We want the public to know other sides [of the service], not only the investigations and dark rooms," a Shin Bet source said on Monday. "The public doesn't know the service's technological side, which is an essential tool of preventive security. Part of the campaign's aim is to bring that to mind. We've located web sites used by high-tech people, and will put Shin Bet banners in them," he added.

The Jerusalem Post reports that Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas confirmed Tuesday that a prisoner swap has been reached to secure the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The kidnapping of Corporal Shalit had sparked the Israeli government's heavy response against militants in the Gaza Strip and against elected Hamas officials.

Abbas told Bahrain-based newspaper El-Halij that Shalit would be transferred to Egypt and held there until Israel fulfilled its part of the bargain. Earlier, Channel 2 News reported that the kidnappers had promised to release news of the soldier's welfare by Wednesday.

The announcement came after the Egyptian newspaper Al-Hayat reported that Shalit had already been transferred to Egypt as part of a deal to secure his release.

The Post says a deal was reached when Hamas leaders agreed with Israel's stipulation that no prisoner with "blood on his hands" would be released as part of the prisoner swap. Israeli officials in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office refused to confirm the report.

Any deal, however, may be complicated by the news that Israel has called for bids to build 700 more homes in settlements in the occupied West Bank. Agence-France Press reports it is the largest settlement expansion push this year.

The anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now heavily criticized the move, saying the construction of hundreds of new settlement homes "violated the government's commitments to the 'road map,'" the latest Middle East peace plan.

Israel "has done nothing to dismantle the dozens of wildcat settlements," said Peace Now in a statement, despite government commitments to dismantle such outposts built without consent of the authorities.

Under the terms of the internationally drafted road map, Israel is meant to freeze all settlement construction in the West Bank. The plan, however, has made no progress since its launch three years ago and Israel says it will not be bound by its commitments until the Palestinians put a halt to attacks.

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