The likely US course on Iran: Go slow

Mr. Ahmadinejad also said that Iran's Aug. 22 response to the offer of incentives was an "exceptional opportunity" to end the dispute with dialogue. In Iran's response, it did offer an eventual suspension of enrichment once talks were under way, but Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said this week that Iran's program for fully mastering the fuel cycle is "irreversible."

But Mr. Perkovich says that Iran is clearly in violation of its obligations as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and should have been "hauled before the Security Council" years ago.

Still, he says the international context will probably dictate a slow approach. "We have this debate going on," he says, between those who want quick action and those who say the problem is that "right now, more people fear the US more than Iran." He adds, "So they are counseling patience."

This is not, however, the approach that Perkovich, with long experience watching nuclear developments, would like to see. "We ought to fast-forward," he says, by skipping the months of additional debate and moving to a vote on sanctions in the Security Council. "We should dare the Russians and Chinese to veto" a sanctions regime against Tehran, he says.

Perkovich admits that the problem with his argument is that a failed Security Council initiative would seem to leave military action against Iran's nuclear installations as the only option.

Indeed, one reason the Russians and Chinese are softening on pursuing sanctions is that they fear it would open the door to military action down the road. While they may also be concerned that not going along with other Security Council members could precipitate military action outside it, they are probably calculating that neither the US nor anyone else (for example, Israel) is there yet.

"The Russians and Chinese may be worried that derailing the sanctions route now could mean that [that] alternative is exhausted, and could lead to other actions they don't want to see," says Mr. Brumberg. "But they may be calculating that while that time might come, it's not now."

The US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has suggested that the US will come up with a resolution that will answer the worries of those fearful of an Iraq-like scenario, where resolutions are later interpreted as opening the door to the use of force. But Mr. Bolton has opened the door to another alternative to Security Council sanctions. In that scenario, countries thwarted in the Council would join the US in imposing sanctions on Iran.

On Monday, Bolton told reporters at the UN, "You can envision sanctions being imposed outside of the Security Council, as the United States has unilaterally imposed sanctions on Iran pursuant to its own statutes, and other governments can do the same."

But some experts doubt such a "sanctions regime of the willing" would have much impact, especially if it were limited to restrictions on Iranian travel and officials' bank accounts. Japan, for example, is already said to be pushing for any sanctions to exclude oil exports, since its economy depends on Iranian oil.

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