Politics of corn loom for divided Mexico

Mr. Damaso's experience seems to exemplify that concern. He says he used to sell corn on his family's 1.2-acre milpa to his local tortilla-maker, but since the price of corn has dropped – while the price for fertilizer and diesel has gone up – he says it is no longer worth it. "You can't break even anymore," he says.

Now he tends the field for family consumption – while the rest of the family has looked for work elsewhere: a few siblings are in New York, others work in a textile factory. He recently returned home after three years working in Brooklyn.

In Mexico, both the culture of small-plot farming and limited investment in technology have prevented the development of vast, mechanized fields like those found in the American Midwest. Nor are Mexican farmers supported as heartily as US corn farmers, who receive an average of $10 billion a year in government subsidies.

Because of these inherent inequalities, many say Mexico is better off with cheaper US corn. For Jorge Gonzalez, a professor of Economics at Trinity University in Texas, not complying with corn provisions under NAFTA "would imply that the price for corn, and therefore tortillas, would increase for everyone," he says. "They would be protecting domestic farmers, but hurting everyone else."

Some farmers agree. Just a few miles from Damaso's plot, Fredy Alvarez Cortez prepared soil for the white, red, and blue corn he cultivates and sells. Yet for the yellow corn that feeds his family's 25 cows, they purchase US imports. Like many farmers in the area, he knows little about the provisions under NAFTA, but he does know his budget. "It's more economical for us now," he says.

Even if Obrador does win, he does not have the authority to renegotiate NAFTA provisions unilaterally, experts say.

If Mexico were to not honor its obligations, the US could enter a dispute under NAFTA or retaliate by not honoring other provisions – like slapping limits on the Mexican avocado industry, which has flourished under NAFTA.

"It becomes much more difficult to predict the array of outcomes," says Mr. Huenemann. The US sent $9.4 billion worth of goods to Mexico in 2005, and is the largest market for Mexico's products. "It's the slippery slope theory."

Still, farm groups say they plan on fighting for the renegotiations promised by Obrador. In January 2003 tens of thousands descended upon Mexico City to demand the renegotiation of agricultural provisions under NAFTA.

Now, says Ana De Ita, executive director of the Center for the Study of Change in the Mexican Countryside, groups are remobilizing. Farmers from across the country have attended Obrador rallies, she says. But they are preparing an information campaign to educate farmers about the impacts of 2008 regardless of who wins, and she says they could hold another demonstration by the middle of next year.

Mr. Suarez, who planned a convocation for August to drum up new strategies, says if his group's demands are not met, they will not go away quietly. "There will be more demonstrations," he says, "and stronger demonstrations."

• Ms. Llana is Latin America correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

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