In Mideast war, stakes keep rising

Just by fighting Israel and surviving, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrullah and his fighters appear to have gained immense prestige among the surrounding Arab nations. The group's popularity threatens both Israeli safety and the Sunni Arab governments of the region, many of which have followed a policy of accommodating Israel's presence. A further spike in anti-Israeli sentiment could bode ill for the region's long-term stability.

"With conflict continuing, the radicalization of the Arab masses is going to become more pervasive, the sympathy for Hizbullah more extensive and, as a consequence, the prospects for a favorable outcome beyond some sort of ad hoc solution will be reduced," said former National Security Advisor Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski at a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies press briefing.

Meanwhile, some analysts have gone so far as to describe the current conflict as the possible beginning of a third world war or a much-anticipated "clash of civilizations."But other experts say such predictions are almost certainly overblown. It remains unclear, for instance, how much involvement Iran has had in Hizbullah's assaults. Islamists are far from a united movement, given that Al Qaeda is dominated by Sunni Muslims, while Hizbullah consists of Shiite radicals.

As has often happened at key moments such as the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Middle East fighting has become entangled in America's larger geopolitical problems.

Back in 73, the problem was the cold war, as the US and Russia eyed each other nervously to see how the other would react to the fighting. In 2006, the conflict is aligned around Iran and its nuclear program.

In 2002, when Iran's undeclared nuclear activities were exposed, Iranian officials retreated to buy time and devise a new strategy, according to George Perkovich, nuclear proliferation expert and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

But as the US became mired in Iraq, the mullahs reversed their strategy. Since 2005, they have been on a "robust counter attack with only a few pauses," writes Perkovich in a recent report.

On August 6, for instance, Iran defied UN Security Council demands to suspend nuclear enrichment activities or face economic sanctions.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah's actions may be a signal of the chaos Iran can command.

"Attention and energy are diverted from the UN effort to isolate Iran, and the idea of accommodating Iran rather than confronting it starts to seem the least bad among no good policy options," writes Perkovich.

Iran's ultimate goal may be to become, not just a nuclear power, but the dominant indigenous power in the region.

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