In Mideast war, stakes keep rising

The Arab-Israeli Conflict of 1967. The Yom Kippur War of 1973. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 1982.

And now, 2006?

As the fighting between Israel and Hizbullah passes the one-month mark, it has grown from a skirmish into a swirling conflict with a geopolitical impact that could rival the iconic wars of modern Middle Eastern history.

At stake may be the US push for democracy in the region, the influence of radical Islamists in surrounding states, and the progress of Iran's nuclear program – not to mention the futures of both Israel and Lebanon.

"A fight that started as a dust-up between a local power and a nonstate actor may have developed into something with larger repercussions for everyone involved, including the United States," says Ellen Laipson, former vice chairwoman of the National Intelligence Council and current president of the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington.

The conflict's historical footprint may hinge on the outcome of this week's frantic diplomatic maneuvers. On Monday, President Bush called for quick UN approval of a cease-fire resolution, telling reporters at his Texas ranch that "we all recognize that the violence must stop."

But even as he called for peace, Bush resisted Lebanese demands that Israel immediately withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Such a move would allow Hizbullah time to regroup, Bush said. On Tuesday, Arab leaders were set to meet with Western diplomats to amend the plan.

The president's push for a cease-fire represents something of a change in US diplomacy towards the region. But it has taken weeks to reach this point – weeks in which civilian casualties have mounted on both sides of the fighting.

Under the US plan, a second UN resolution would approve deployment of an international force to the Lebanese border region.

"Whatever happens in the UN, we must not create a vaccuum into which Hizbullah and its sponsors are able to move weapons," said Bush.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has described the fighting as the "birth pangs" of a new Middle East. To the US administration, the conflict may be an opportunity to damage and discredit Hizbullah and its state sponsors, Syria and Iran.

But the US decision to, in essence, allow Israel time to continue its assault has sounded harsh to much of the Middle East. Anti-Americanism in the region was already on the rise, said Hisham Milhem, Washington correspondent for the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar.

Now, "it is the new religion in the Middle East," said Milhem at a recent conference at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Hizbullah and its backers may see the conflict in the same terms as the White House: an opportunity to mold the region in their own vision.

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