Hopes for change hung on '08 Olympics

Only two years from Tuesday, China, one of the world's oldest civilizations, hosts the Olympic Summer Games, one of the world's most prestigious events – for the first time.

Now, as the clock ticks louder, expectations that the Olympics will cure all, reform all, and modernize all in China – are piling up thick and fast.

Everyone inside and out of China has a hope that the Games will improve their cause. The range of hope is breathtaking: from an end to spitting on the sidewalks of Beijing to some who dream the Games will tip China toward democracy.

Even the opening date of the Games is seen as promising: 8-8-08, is regarded as a very auspicious sign of prosperity among numerologists in east Asia. Beijing's goal since winning the bid has been to hold "the best Games ever."

Beijing officials want to clean up the Internet and end air pollution, smelly taxis, and bad manners. There's a boom in speaking English, clean up of trash and public toilet's cleanup, new city bus lines, and a $500 million investment in three new subway lines. Even "Olympic vegetables," a cornucopia of Mother Earth fruits grown in special fields for foreigners, are getting individual bar codes – something expected to have lasting benefit for quality control.

Human rights groups are putting out the message that unless China improves its record on Tibetan autonomy and treatment of North Korean refugees, Muslims in Xinjiang, and prisoners, to name a few – it will face global embarrassment. Press freedom groups waggle their fingers to say if China can't end its press restrictions like censoring news, and arresting Internet dissidents, the media will somehow make that the subject of coverage, not the Games.

In fact, expectations are so high for 2008 that many analysts wonder whether any of them can realistically take hold or be absorbed in the hurly burly of the weeks–long sports extravaganza. China so far has shown no official interest in political reform tied to the games. If anything, it has wanted to use the Olympics to show that its one–party state and ancient civilization deserve, at long last, some respect.

"Beijing is spending as much effort on controlling the environment for the Olympics as it is on construction," says Russell Leigh Moses a professor of politics and international relations at the People's University. "For the sports authority this is about gaining as much gold as possible. For the party, it is about the greatness of their rule. For the construction team, it is about image and showcase."

Six years ago, prior to July 13, 2001 when Beijing was given the official nod by the International Olympic Committee, the debate was whether China deserved the games. It was a fight between those who felt China had been excluded for too long, and deserved a chance to open up and liberalize – versus those who felt that Beijing would exploit the games as a way to legitimate its regime to its own people.

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