Lebanese reject French-US plan

"Even their movement depends on peace resolution ... they just don't have the means, the capability, or the equipment," says Timur Goksel, a 24-year veteran senior adviser and spokesman for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, who now teaches conflict resolution at the American University of Beirut.

The Lebanese Army "is a very respectable internal security force ... their capability is very high, [but] we should not test the loyalty or cohesion of that army by putting it in an impossible role," says Mr. Goksel. "It can't take on the Israelis, and can definitely not take on Hizbullah."

Still, the scale of devastation wrought across Lebanon by Israeli military firepower – sparked when Hizbullah captured two Israeli soldiers in a July 12 cross-border raid – means that Hizbullah will also be making adjustments.

"There is a realization by Hizbullah that they are not anymore going to plant their flags on this side of the border, as they have before," says Goksel. "Hizbullah knows they have to give something to this country, and the minimum you can give is to allow the national army – with all its shortcomings – to represent Lebanon on the border."

Those shortcomings include the need for "significant spare parts," according to a US military visit before the current flare-up, Gen. John Abizaid, head of the US Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week.

The army "needs a significant upgrade of equipment and training capability that I believe the Western nations, particularly the United States, can assist with," said General Abizaid. "It will never work for Lebanon if, over time, Hizbullah has a greater military capacity than the Lebanese armed forces."

But such an outcome, experts say, requires Hizbullah to accept the terms of any cease-fire. Sources close to Hizbullah say the militia will accept the presence of an expanded UN force to support the Lebanese Army, but that a newly minted international force would not be acceptable.

Disarming Hizbullah is yet another issue, and one that is not likely to be accepted under current circumstances.

A post-civil war plan 15 years ago to boost army capabilities, to present at least a credible deterrence to any Israeli military incursion – to make the price in casualties high, with 12 mechanized tank brigades – was devised by senior army staff. But that plan was eventually undermined by Syria, whose own forces in Lebanon feared an eventual military push to free Lebanon from Syrian control.

Syrian forces left Lebanon last year, on a wave of popular anger ignited by the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which many Lebanese blame on Syria. But it left behind a neglected national force.

"The army is outstanding to perform such a mission of stabilization and counter-penetration; they could collect all the information and intelligence ... if there is a decision accepted by Hizbullah," says Gen. Nizar Abdel-Kader, a retired Lebanese general who writes a military strategy column for Addyar newspaper in Beirut.

Hizbullah will examine UN resolutions, he says, and assess the state of the battlefield – and the mind-set of both Syrian and Iranian backers – before making final decisions about army deployment, and possible disarmament.

"If Hizbullah is against this [army] deployment, I would go tomorrow to the Chief-of-Staff of the army, and say: 'Don't send your army, because you are sending it into an environment of great risk of dismantling the army,' " says General Abdel-Kader.

"Any force could be successful. The Lebanese Army does not need an international force, unless to tell the Israelis not to violate the airspace, the blue line, or the territory of water of Lebanon," says Abdel-Kader. "The Lebanese Army can do it in one week ... the south of Lebanon could be a peaceful haven, if Hizbullah did not object."

Following are excerpts from the operative parts of a draft UN resolution on the Middle East conflict negotiated by the United States and France, which the 15-member UN Security Council may vote on early next week.

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