Obrador takes risk with Mexico protests

The 2006 race pitted free-trade advocate Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) against former Mexico City mayor and advocate of the poor Obrador. Mr. Calderón came out on top with a little more than half a percentage point. It was the first election since President Vicente Fox, also of the PAN, took power from the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), whose candidate finished July's race in third place.

The seven judges of the electoral court must order a partial or full recount of the vote by Aug. 31. They could also annul the election, but that is considered unlikely. Obrador has said he will accept nothing less than a full recount.

His mass resistance might pressure the court to heed his calls, say supporters and opponents alike. Any court, especially one just 10 years old, has room for discretion in interpreting the law, says Laura Carlsen, director of the Americas program for the left-leaning International Relations Center in Mexico City. "They have the responsibility to take into account what is going to be best for the nation at this juncture," she says. "Having people in the streets from all over the country ... is significant pressure."

But the resistance could also backfire. A survey by the polling firm Ipsos-Bimsa shows that 52.5 percent of those surveyed July 21-24 believe Calderón won July 2, and 48 percent said they would support a recount.

"The majority is in favor of a recount, but with more radical measures, most of his supporters are not going to be willing to do that," says Alberto Aziz, an analyst at the Center for Research and Higher Learning in Social Anthropology. "Before there were no mechanisms in place to resolve [electoral] conflicts," such as the electoral court.

Francisco Sanchez Gonzalez exemplifies a resident who voted for Obrador but does not consider himself a hardcore supporter. He says he has been disillusioned by the calls for civil resistance. "Many of those people are there because [the PRD] is paying them to be there," he says, "meanwhile we are all losing money."

Other critics are emerging too. A Monday editorial in La Jornada newspaper, which has generally supported Obrador, criticized him for blocking streets that aggravate the lives of "third parties." Analysts such as Mr. de Castro from ITAM say they worry this protest is exacerbating Mexico's so-called "red-blue" divide. "[The two sides] have become ideological faith communities," he says. "I don't see the PAN or PRD trying to cross over and build bridges."

• Ms. Llana is Latin America correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

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