Arab leaders may hold key to Gaza calm

With Israel pushing deeper into Gaza and Palestinian militants successfully launching rockets at a major Israeli city for the first time, international intermediaries are stepping up efforts to forge a breakthrough that could pull the two sides back from the brink.

But whereas a decade ago US and European envoys filled a crucial role in brokering peace deals and getting the parties to talk, now regional players willing to talk to Hamas are coming forward as the countries that may hold the keys to cooling off the crisis.

Egyptian officials in particular – alongside those from countries including Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia – have been acting as the go-between in the escalating conflict, filling the shoes that once would have been worn by a senior US envoy to the Middle East, a United Nations official, or someone from the EU.

"During this transitional period, only Egypt and Jordan can play a mediating role," says Emad Gad, a senior analyst at the Al-Ahram Center in Cairo. "But Jordan has a serious problem with the Hamas government, so in reality, only Egypt can take the lead. Only Egypt has contacts with Hamas, with Israel, with Saudi Arabia. Also, Egypt is trying to show the American administration that Egypt can play a third-party role and can benefit stability in the region."

After the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords, periodic breakdowns in the peace process often meant the arrival of big-name mediators such as the White House Middle East peace envoy Dennis Ross, who served through several US administrations, or Norway's Terje Larsen, who served as the UN's special coordinator on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Now, there is no singular address for brokering Middle East peace. Even the so-called Quartet – an alliance that includes the US, the UN, the European Union, and Russia – has no office or spokesman here. And a Quartet meeting hasn't happened in nearly half a year, since Hamas was elected to run the Palestinian Authority.

With very little room for dialogue between Hamas and the countries represented by the Quartet – most of them are banned from having relations with Hamas because it is designated as a terrorist group – it is regional Arab and Muslim countries working to calm the violent standoff.

At the forefront is Egypt, which has used its position as a neighbor on relatively good terms with all of the parties. Egypt has been using its clout to try to forge a common policy with Saudi Arabia, analysts say. That provides a kind of counterpoint to Syria, which has allowed the Hamas leadership abroad, under the aegis of Khaled Meshaal, to live and operate in Damascus.

Mr. Meshaal, or Hamas outside, as many here refer to it, is reported to have been instrumental in ordering attacks on Israel such as the June 25 kidnapping of Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

"Egypt prefers to deal with Ismail Haniyeh and to deal with Hamas inside, not Hamas outside," says Mr. Gad. At the same time, he notes, Egypt's position vis-a-vis Hamas is not necessarily smooth, because it is essentially a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, viewed as an illegal organization in Egypt.

It is in part for this reason that Egypt has been trying to convince Saudi Arabia to come on board in efforts to mediate a cool-down in the situation. Earlier this week, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak discussed the Israeli-Palestinian crisis with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in an unscheduled visit to Jeddah, requesting that Saudi officials make use of their connections with Hamas.

"Egypt is trying to get some backing from Saudi Arabia," Gad adds. "Saudi Arabia has its own unique influence on the Hamas government – politically, religiously, and economically."

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