Is Pakistan ready for democracy in '07?

Some critics also point out that the system cannot be sustained: Built on patronage, it is bound to dissipate if and when Musharraf steps down, meaning democratic institutions will have to built from scratch again.

"When Musharraf goes, the system goes with him. Because it has no real ownership, no stake holders," says Samina Ahmed, South Asia director of the International Crisis Group.

Proponents of the devolution plan deny these charges, calling it the first substantive model to correct colonial-era laws that allowed a politics of patronage to flourish in the first place.

"What we're intending to do is shift the ownership of [political] institutions to democratically elected leaders," says Daniyal Aziz, chairman of the National Reconstruction Bureau, which oversees the devolution plan. "Every government has an influence over local governments. To say that this is the Achilles' heel of the system is not fair."

In the shorter term, observers like Ms. Ahmed say, the local government system could mean trouble when parliamentary elections roll around in 2007. Musharraf's term also expires then. With nazims dependent on them for cash, the military regime and its supporters have undue leverage over the ballot box. Mr. Aziz, however, denies such influence, arguing that if tampering were to take place, it would not be at the local level.

Despite the flaws, even the most outspoken critics say abandoning the pursuit of democracy altogether is not an option the West or Pakistan should consider. Democratic parties, they contend, are a far better option for rooting out extremism than a military regime. The latter only encourages Islamist politics, they add, by diminishing the political space to such an extent that Islamist groups become the only outspoken voice of political expression. Free and fair elections in 2007 are the best way to contain them. "If you were to have free and fair elections in Pakistan, the victors would be the moderates who support the American war on terror," says Ahmed of ICG.

Ultimately, many observers say, it is Musharraf who will decide just how free and fair those elections will be. Nawaz Sharif, the president whom Musharraf deposed, and Benazir Bhutto, his predecessor and leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party, are both exiled abroad, but have indicated their intentions of returning to contest the election.

Many doubt Musharraf will ever allow them to set foot on native soil. "There are domestic compulsions on [Musharraf] which make it difficult for him to have free and fair elections," says Rizvi. "If Bhutto and Sharif are allowed to come back and engage in a movement, it will cause problems for the ruling party. [Musharraf] wants to hold on.... They could turn things against him."

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