Koizumi visit presents a tougher Japan

Yet he leaves a political climate that has moved so far to the right that the leading successor in the party is Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, whose grandfather was a Cabinet member during World War II and who belongs to a new breed of unapologetic patriots who have openly described China as a "threat."

In recent months, the jockeying has taken an unexpected turn, however. Moderate candidate Yasuo Fukuda is making a run, at least in LDP party circle discussions.

Citing a need for better relations with huge trading partner China, business leaders as well support Mr. Fukuda, a former cabinet secretary. In a recent survey of 31 business leaders, 15 opted for Fukuda, while 12 gave Abe the nod.

Yet Abe is again picking up in popular polls, helped by an unlikely source. By placing a Taepodong 2 long-range missile in launch position in North Korea, Kim Jong Il has created worry in Japan – which parlays into national security fears and a boost for Abe.

"Kim launched the first Taepodong over Japan in 1998," notes a Western diplomat. "That resulted in the beginning of missile defense and the first close military alliance between Japan and the US. Now his second missile is moving to elect Abe. Kim is aiding the Japanese right-wing. How ironic is that?"

US officials regard Tokyo as their most reliable ally in the Pacific. Yet such status requires maintenance, they say, and careful attention to how the relationship plays with other partners.

South Korean diplomats have felt dismay, if not betrayal, for example, at what appears to be US neutrality on Japan's recent claims over the Dokdo islands off Korea. This spring, Korean and Japanese naval vessels came close to a standoff over Dokdo, which Japan calls Takeshima. Seoul has long felt that the US regarded Dokdo as Korean.

Last week, President Roh weighed Seoul's military ability against Japan's, telling coast guard officers that, "It is true Japan is superior in military power, but we have enough military capability to deter Japan's provocations."

As Koizumi arrives in the US, he is bringing the welcome message that Japan has agreed to lift its ban on US beef imports, put in place five months ago over concerns about mad cow disease. The ban came just a month after a previous two-year ban had been lifted. The issue has caused anger in Congress, puzzlement in ranch states, and frustration at the US Embassy over what have been viewed as subjective claims by Japan regarding US regulation of its beef exports.

Then there are new US concerns about Japan's revisionism regarding its history with the US. The Yushukan museum, on the grounds of Yasukuni shrine, suggests that the US, not Japan, was responsible for World War II.

"We have our own history issues with Japan," says Mr. Vogel of Harvard. "The fiction that we forced Japan into World War II, things like that, are getting stronger. It is not in Japan's interest to promote these views, and we need to get a fuller discussion about history. We can be balanced and even-handed, and not one-sided, in Asia."

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