Mexico's once-mighty party struggles

For most of the 20th century, power and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) were one and the same in Mexico. All the mayors were PRI. All the congressmen. All the senators, governors, presidents.

There was nowhere to go but down. And, starting in 1989 when the first non-PRI governor was elected, that is exactly where the party went.

The PRI lost its absolute majority in Congress in 1997, a result not only of fresh competition, but also of its reputation for corruption, its lack of a clear ideology, and a perception as being out-of-touch, say analysts. In 2000, Mexicans elected Vicente Fox of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), ending 71 years of hand-picked PRI presidents and an era of one-party politics.

Now, the PRI is heading into the July 2 national elections with its presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo trailing in third place and its defectors numerous enough to fill Mexico City's Azteca Stadium twice over. But while many here are wondering whether it's finally over for the biggest party in town, others caution against prematurely predicting the PRI's demise.

"Don't bet on it," says Gabriel Guerra Castellanos, a respected political analyst for the daily Reforma newspaper. "Despite all its shortcomings ... the PRI remains, arguably, the country's only real national party. And its resilience to the changing political landscape is actually remarkable," he says.

At present, the PRI still has the largest bloc of deputies in Congress – 204 out of 500 – and holds 58 of 128 Senate seats. Seventeen of the country's 31 governors are PRI, including in the important state of Mexico, and 70 percent of the country's municipalities are headed by "PRI-istas."

A poll released Wednesday by the Consulta Mitofsky polling firm, shows that while the PRI was expected to lose party seats, it would remain a powerful player. Mr. Madrazo might not win the election, says Pamela Starr, a Latin America analyst with the Eurasia Group, but Mexicans will still give the party enough votes "to sustain a strong PRI presence in the next legislature."

"It would be wrong to rule the PRI out yet," says Martin Olavarrieta, a PRI candidate for Mexico City Assembly. "We have a tremendous structure and a lot of loyal voters. We feel confident about our future."

It does not seem the party's leader could say the same for himself.

For more than a year, Madrazo, a former congressman, senator, and governor whose father was also a PRI governor, has been lagging in every national poll. As elections approach, the race between front-runners Andrés Manuel López Obrador, from the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), and PAN candidate Felipe Calderón, is tightening. But Madrazo's fate seems a sure thing.

"I am a 'PRI-ista,' now and forever," says Jesús Jimenez, a taco vendor in Mexico City. "But someone in the PRI messed us up when they chose Madrazo."

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