Abbas's political gambit

Not everyone is convinced that Abbas will be successful in his campaign to turn to one of the ultimate tools of a democracy - asking the people choose policy, rather than politicians - as a way out of the current quagmire.

Recent polls have proven unreliable, says Hisham Ahmed, a professor of political science at Bir Zeit University. "There is no guarantee that if a referendum is held, the results would be favorable to its proponents. It might be contrary to what they have been predicting," he says.

One wild card is the effect of the financial strain caused by the Hamas-led government's isolation from the international community. For example, while Kukali says economic suffering will push people in the direction of compromise, Ahmed says it could also make people rally around Hamas.

"The economic siege might only radicalize the society," he says. His greatest concern is that there won't be an easy solution to the crisis. Hamas does not want to be seen giving in, and Abbas, having staked his heretofore quiet reputation on the referendum, won't want to be seen giving up.

"We could see a situation where both parties stick to their respective positions," says Ahmed. "If that would happen, it would deepen divisions in society and it might even deepen the violence and make it spread from Gaza to the West Bank."

Since Palestinians have never had a referendum before, there are no legal procedures for it. On that basis, several Hamas lawmakers question whether Abbas has the authority to hold a referendum at all. Some argue that the Palestinian legislative council would need to pass a law first, and with Hamas holding such a solid majority, that looks unlikely. Others argue that as president, Abbas can call a referendum by decree - but might open himself to criticism that he is trying to steamroll over the democratically elected government.

"The election law doesn't stipulate anything about referendums," says Ali Jarbawi, the former head of the Palestinian Elections Commission and a political scientist at Bir Zeit. "There's a second question: who asks for a referendum and who organizes it? If you have a legislative branch in session, which there is, and you want [a referendum], you need a law for it."

Other options exist. Abbas can wait until the legislature isn't in session, when the president can simply declare a law. Or he could remove the government and appoint a new one, and call for new elections, Dr. Jarbawi says.

Either of those options might end up making Abbas look autocratic. On the other hand, if he tries to pass a referendum law in the Palestinian legislative council now, it is not likely to pass.

"Abbas is in a dilemma because Hamas is in the majority, but this is how democracy works. You just have to deal with it or, if not, let him take Hamas out of power."

That, for him, is the referendum's central question. "The underlying assumption is: Do you agree to continue with the leadership of Hamas or no? That's what they're asking."

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