Hizbullah officials, however, say that its weapons are for the defense of Lebanon, not Iran. "Iran is capable of launching its own retaliation," says Ahmad Malli, a member of Hizbullah's political council. "It's not logical for Iran as a regional power to ask a small organization to attack Israel."

The domestic constraints on Hizbullah convince many analysts, including some critics, that the party is unlikely to attack Israel in a knee-jerk reaction to a military strike against its Iranian backer.

"Any act that is perceived internationally and domestically as serving Iran would call Hizbullah's Lebanese credentials into serious doubt and confirm the widely circulated hypothesis that Hizbullah is Iran's proxy in Lebanon," says Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, assistant professor of politics at the Lebanese-American University and author of "Hizbullah: Politics and Religion."

However, Mr. Malli offered another scenario in which Israel launches a preemptive strike against Hizbullah to degrade Tehran's retaliatory options in the event of an attack.

"If Israel attacks Iran, it may well attack other targets at the same time, including Hizbullah in Lebanon," he says. "In that case, Hizbullah has the right to defend itself and Lebanon with all possible means."

Far from a theoretical concept, Malli's scenario is one that is under serious consideration by Israel, says Gerald Steinberg, professor of politics at Israel's Bar Ilan University.

"Hizbullah is seen as the main force of the Iranian response, and IDF [Israel Defense Force] planners could be expected to be prepared for such a strike [against Hizbullah] in the context of a military move against Iran," he says. "Some Israelis would argue that since a Hizbullah response in the event of an attack on Iran is inevitable, not striking against Hizbullah would be irrational."

The uncomfortable proximity in which these bitter foes find themselves is best illustrated on this wind-swept hilltop 2,400 feet above northern Galilee.

Nestled against the Israeli side of the fence is a massive structure bristling with antennae, cameras, and rotating radar dishes. Yards away on the Lebanese side is Hizbullah's bunker of bulldozed earth ramparts surmounted by two metal turrets that Hizbullah has had fitted with bulletproof glass windows. Closer to the fence, Hizbullah has erected surveillance cameras pointing at the Israeli position.

UN officials believe Hizbullah's construction work is probably defensive in nature, to improve the monitoring of Israeli troop movements, rather than preparations for an attack. But in this volatile corner of the Middle East, misreading the intentions of the enemy can have dangerous consequences.

"Hizbullah ultimately benefits from the West's inflated assessment of its capabilities and intentions," says Mr. Leenders, the Dutch academic. "It effectively presents them as a source of deterrence without them having to lift a finger."

Page: 1 | 2